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dc.contributor.author
Kaufmann, Daniel
dc.date.accessioned
2017-10-03T08:07:39Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T15:53:57Z
dc.date.available
2017-10-03T08:07:39Z
dc.date.issued
2016-11
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/122621
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-a-010786535
dc.description.abstract
I study the link between real activity and deflation, taking into account measurement problems in 19th century CPI data. Replications based on modern data show that measurement problems spuriously increase the volatility of inflation as well as the number of deflationary episodes, and they lower inflation persistence. As a consequence, estimates of the link between real activity and deflation may be attenuated because of the errors-in-variables problem. I find that real activity was on average substantially lower during 19th century deflations in the US, after controlling for measurement error using an IV-regression approach. Moreover, the average short-fall in real activity was not significantly different compared to the Great Depression. Using well-measured data for a panel of 17 industrialized economies shows that milder deflations were associated with a lower output gap. But, the association with GDP growth is not statistically significant.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich
dc.rights.uri
http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/
dc.subject
Real activity
en_US
dc.subject
ECONOMIC HISTORY
en_US
dc.subject
Monetary history
en_US
dc.subject
DEFLATION
en_US
dc.subject
NINETEENTH CENTURY A.D.
en_US
dc.subject
Deflation
en_US
dc.subject
Measurement error
en_US
dc.subject
WIRTSCHAFTSGESCHICHTE
en_US
dc.subject
MEASUREMENT ERRORS (MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS)
en_US
dc.subject
MESSFEHLER (MATHEMATISCHE STATISTIK)
en_US
dc.subject
NEUNZEHNTES JAHRHUNDERT N. CHR.
en_US
dc.subject
IV
en_US
dc.title
Is Deflation Costly After All? Evidence from Noisy Historical Data
en_US
dc.type
Working Paper
dc.rights.license
In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted
dc.date.published
2016
ethz.journal.title
KOF Working Papers
ethz.journal.volume
421
en_US
ethz.size
43 p.
en_US
ethz.code.ddc
3 - Social sciences::330 - Economics
en_US
ethz.identifier.nebis
010786535
ethz.publication.place
Zürich
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::03716 - Sturm, Jan-Egbert / Sturm, Jan-Egbert
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::03716 - Sturm, Jan-Egbert / Sturm, Jan-Egbert
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T15:55:48Z
ethz.source
ECOL
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59366ba2b8a0717302
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593654dde304e97582
ethz.ecolpid
eth:50043
ethz.ecitpid
pub:184945
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-19T13:00:32Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-11-05T20:43:18Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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