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dc.contributor.author
Manoli, Gabriele
dc.contributor.author
Katul, Gabriel G.
dc.contributor.author
Marani, Marco
dc.date.accessioned
2019-07-01T09:50:32Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T18:03:33Z
dc.date.available
2019-07-01T09:50:32Z
dc.date.issued
2016-12
dc.identifier.issn
2328-4277
dc.identifier.other
10.1002/2016EF000431
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/125306
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000125306
dc.description.abstract
While climate science debates are focused on the attainment of peak anthropogenic CO2 emissions and policy tools to reduce peak temperatures, the human‐energy‐climate system can hold “rebound” surprises beyond this peak. Following the second industrial revolution, global per capita CO2 emissions (cc) experienced a punctuated growth of about 100% every 60 years, mainly attributable to technological development and its global spread. A model of the human‐energy‐climate system capable of reproducing past punctuated dynamics shows that rebounds in global CO2 emissions emerge due to delays intrinsic to the diffusion of innovations. Such intrinsic delays in the adoption and spread of low‐carbon emitting technologies, together with projected population growth, upset the warming target set by the Paris Agreement. To avoid rebounds and their negative climate effects, model calculations show that the diffusion of climate‐friendly technologies must occur with lags one‐order of magnitude shorter (i.e., ∼6 years) than the characteristic timescale of past punctuated growth in cc. Radically new strategies to globally implement the technological advances at unprecedented rates are needed if the current emission goals are to be achieved.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Wiley
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject
CO2 emissions
en_US
dc.subject
climate change
en_US
dc.subject
delay
en_US
dc.subject
rebounds
en_US
dc.subject
human‐energy‐climate system
en_US
dc.subject
climate mitigation
en_US
dc.title
Delay-induced rebounds in CO2 emissions and critical time-scales to meet global warming targets
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2016-11-17
ethz.journal.title
Earth's Future
ethz.journal.volume
4
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
12
en_US
ethz.pages.start
636
en_US
ethz.pages.end
643
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.nebis
010090819
ethz.publication.place
Hoboken, NJ
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02115 - Dep. Bau, Umwelt und Geomatik / Dep. of Civil, Env. and Geomatic Eng.::02608 - Institut für Umweltingenieurwiss. / Institute of Environmental Engineering::03473 - Burlando, Paolo / Burlando, Paolo
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02115 - Dep. Bau, Umwelt und Geomatik / Dep. of Civil, Env. and Geomatic Eng.::02608 - Institut für Umweltingenieurwiss. / Institute of Environmental Engineering::03473 - Burlando, Paolo / Burlando, Paolo
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T18:04:26Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp5936550da206c82666
ethz.ecitpid
pub:187896
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-12T23:06:05Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-07-01T09:50:44Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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