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dc.contributor.author
Yukalov, Vyacheslav I.
dc.contributor.author
Sornette, Didier
dc.date.accessioned
2020-09-28T12:56:52Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-08T20:43:38Z
dc.date.available
2020-09-28T12:56:52Z
dc.date.issued
2008-08-01
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/12664
dc.description.abstract
Following the ideas of Bohr, Von Neumann, and Benioff, we formulate quantum decision theory (QDT) as the quantum-mechanical theory of measurement for probability operators. QDT captures the effect of superposition of composite prospects, including many incorporated intentions. It is based on the hypothesis that the thought processes of real human beings involved in the definition and analysis of alternative prospects and scenarios do not necessarily separate them according to the recipes of standard probability theory and of classical utility theory. Our QDT formalizes systematically a broader class of decision making processes in which prospects can interact, interfere and remain entangled. The mathematical QDT is developed so as to be applicable to real-life decision making processes. We demonstrate that all known anomalies and paradoxes documented in the context of classical utility theory are reducible to just a few mathematical archetypes, all of which finding straightforward explanations in the framework of QDT. The following paradoxes are addressed: the Allais paradox (or compatibility paradox), the independence paradox, the Ellsberg paradox, the inversion paradox, the invariance violation described by Kahneman and Tversky, the certainty effects, the disjunction effect (or violation of the Savage sure-thing principle), the conjunction fallacy, and the isolation effect (or focusing, availability, salience, framing, or elicitation effects). Interference terms, which are essential for resolving the paradoxes, quantify the aversion of human beings to uncertainty and/or to perceived potential loss resulting from their decisions.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Cornell University
en_US
dc.subject
decision theory
en_US
dc.subject
quantum theory
en_US
dc.subject
Hilbert space
en_US
dc.subject
utility theory
en_US
dc.subject
emotions
en_US
dc.subject
loss aversion
en_US
dc.subject
uncertainty aversion
en_US
dc.subject
Allais paradox
en_US
dc.subject
independence paradox
en_US
dc.subject
inversion paradox
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dc.subject
Ellsberg paradox
en_US
dc.subject
conjunction fallacy
en_US
dc.subject
disjunction effect
en_US
dc.subject
isolation effect
en_US
dc.title
Mathematical Structure of Quantum Decision Theory
en_US
dc.type
Working Paper
ethz.journal.title
arXiv
ethz.pages.start
0808.0112
en_US
ethz.size
40 p.
en_US
ethz.code.jel
JEL - JEL::D - Microeconomics::D0 - General::D03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
en_US
ethz.code.jel
JEL - JEL::D - Microeconomics::D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty::D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
en_US
ethz.code.jel
JEL - JEL::D - Microeconomics::D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty::D83 - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
en_US
ethz.code.jel
JEL - JEL::D - Microeconomics::D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty::D84 - Expectations; Speculations
en_US
ethz.identifier.arxiv
0808.0112
ethz.publication.place
Ithaca, NY
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::03738 - Sornette, Didier (emeritus) / Sornette, Didier (emeritus)
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::03738 - Sornette, Didier (emeritus) / Sornette, Didier (emeritus)
ethz.relation.isPreviousVersionOf
20.500.11850/24487
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-08T20:43:58Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59364c1bbf15e26553
ethz.ecitpid
pub:23999
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Metadata only
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-13T00:26:27Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2021-02-15T17:38:37Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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