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dc.contributor.author
Sippel, Sebastian
dc.contributor.author
Zscheischler, Jakob
dc.contributor.author
Heimann, Martin
dc.contributor.author
Lange, Holger
dc.contributor.author
Mahecha, Miguel D.
dc.contributor.author
Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van
dc.contributor.author
Otto, Friederike E.L.
dc.contributor.author
Reichstein, Markus
dc.date.accessioned
2019-06-11T15:44:54Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T19:43:49Z
dc.date.available
2019-06-11T15:44:54Z
dc.date.issued
2017
dc.identifier.issn
1027-5606
dc.identifier.issn
1607-7938
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/hess-21-441-2017
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/128415
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000128415
dc.description.abstract
Daily precipitation extremes and annual totals have increased in large parts of the global land area over the past decades. These observations are consistent with theoretical considerations of a warming climate. However, until recently these trends have not been shown to consistently affect dry regions over land. A recent study, published by Donat et al. (2016), now identified significant increases in annual-maximum daily extreme precipitation (Rx1d) and annual precipitation totals (PRCPTOT) in dry regions. Here, we revisit the applied methods and explore the sensitivity of changes in precipitation extremes and annual totals to alternative choices of defining a dry region (i.e. in terms of aridity as opposed to precipitation characteristics alone). We find that (a) statistical artifacts introduced by data pre-processing based on a time-invariant reference period lead to an overestimation of the reported trends by up to 40%, and that (b) the reported trends of globally aggregated extremes and annual totals are highly sensitive to the definition of a "dry region of the globe". For example, using the same observational dataset, accounting for the statistical artifacts, and based on different aridity-based dryness definitions, we find a reduction in the positive trend of Rx1d from the originally reported +1.6%decade−1 to +0.2 to +0.9%decade−1 (period changes for 1981–2010 averages relative to 1951–1980 are reduced to −1.32 to +0.97% as opposed to +4.85% in the original study). If we include additional but less homogenized data to cover larger regions, the global trend increases slightly (Rx1d: +0.4 to +1.1%decade−1), and in this case we can indeed confirm (partly) significant increases in Rx1d. However, these globally aggregated estimates remain uncertain as considerable gaps in long-term observations in the Earth's arid and semi-arid regions remain. In summary, adequate data pre-processing and accounting for uncertainties regarding the definition of dryness are crucial to the quantification of spatially aggregated trends in precipitation extremes in the world's dry regions. In view of the high relevance of the question to many potentially affected stakeholders, we call for a well-reflected choice of specific data processing methods and the inclusion of alternative dryness definitions to guarantee that communicated results related to climate change be robust.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years?
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2017-01-25
ethz.journal.title
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ethz.journal.volume
21
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
1
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
ethz.pages.start
441
en_US
ethz.pages.end
458
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.identifier.nebis
010847162
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
ethz.relation.isSupplementedBy
10.5194/hess-21-441-2017-supplement
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T19:44:21Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593655408e8c798700
ethz.ecitpid
pub:191325
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-19T08:39:05Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2023-02-06T17:11:36Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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