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dc.contributor.author
Knutti, Reto
dc.contributor.author
Sedláček, Jan
dc.contributor.author
Sanderson, Benjamin M.
dc.contributor.author
Lorenz, Ruth
dc.contributor.author
Fischer, Erich M.
dc.contributor.author
Eyring, Veronika
dc.date.accessioned
2020-12-09T12:29:54Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T20:11:27Z
dc.date.available
2017-08-21T09:31:59Z
dc.date.available
2020-12-09T09:59:59Z
dc.date.available
2020-12-09T12:29:54Z
dc.date.issued
2017-03-17
dc.identifier.issn
0094-8276
dc.identifier.issn
1944-8007
dc.identifier.other
10.1002/2016GL072012
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/129180
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000129180
dc.description.abstract
Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup. We provide weighted multimodel projections of Arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble. We argue that the growing number of models with different characteristics and considerable interdependence finally justifies abandoning strict model democracy, and we provide guidance on when and how this can be achieved robustly.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
American Geophysical Union
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/
dc.title
A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted
dc.date.published
2017-02-18
ethz.journal.title
Geophysical Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
44
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
4
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Geophys. Res. Lett.
ethz.pages.start
1909
en_US
ethz.pages.end
1918
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.grant
Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.identifier.nebis
010841505
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.grant.agreementno
641816
ethz.grant.fundername
SBFI
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100007352
ethz.grant.program
H2020
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T20:12:19Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593655509795121627
ethz.ecitpid
pub:192140
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-08-21T09:32:00Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2021-02-15T21:36:24Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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