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dc.contributor.author
Pfister, Laurent
dc.contributor.author
Kirchner, James W.
dc.date.accessioned
2017-12-04T14:42:19Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T20:46:57Z
dc.date.available
2017-07-13T14:13:33Z
dc.date.available
2017-12-04T14:42:19Z
dc.date.issued
2017-03
dc.identifier.issn
0043-1397
dc.identifier.issn
1944-7973
dc.identifier.other
10.1002/2016WR020116
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/130308
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000130308
dc.description.abstract
The basic structure of the scientific method—at least in its idealized form—is widely championed as a recipe for scientific progress, but the day-to-day practice may be different. Here, we explore the spectrum of current practice in hypothesis formulation and testing in hydrology, based on a random sample of recent research papers. This analysis suggests that in hydrology, as in other fields, hypothesis formulation and testing rarely correspond to the idealized model of the scientific method. Practices such as “p-hacking” or “HARKing” (Hypothesizing After the Results are Known) are major obstacles to more rigorous hypothesis testing in hydrology, along with the well-known problem of confirmation bias—the tendency to value and trust confirmations more than refutations—among both researchers and reviewers. Nonetheless, as several examples illustrate, hypothesis tests have played an essential role in spurring major advances in hydrological theory. Hypothesis testing is not the only recipe for scientific progress, however. Exploratory research, driven by innovations in measurement and observation, has also underlain many key advances. Further improvements in observation and measurement will be vital to both exploratory research and hypothesis testing, and thus to advancing the science of hydrology.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Wiley
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.title
Debates-Hypothesis testing in hydrology: Theory and practice
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2017-03-29
ethz.journal.title
Water Resources Research
ethz.journal.volume
53
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
3
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Water Resour. Res.
ethz.pages.start
1792
en_US
ethz.pages.end
1798
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.identifier.nebis
010838393
ethz.publication.place
Malden, MA
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02722 - Institut für Terrestrische Oekosysteme / Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems::03798 - Kirchner, James W. (emeritus) / Kirchner, James W. (emeritus)
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02722 - Institut für Terrestrische Oekosysteme / Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems::03798 - Kirchner, James W. (emeritus) / Kirchner, James W. (emeritus)
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T20:47:14Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59365565d055625867
ethz.ecitpid
pub:193314
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-13T14:13:38Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2025-02-07T00:22:45Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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