Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author
Braun, Holger
dc.contributor.author
Ditlevsen, Peter
dc.contributor.author
Kurths, Jürgen
dc.contributor.author
Mudelsee, Manfred
dc.date.accessioned
2019-06-25T08:01:33Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-14T12:13:02Z
dc.date.available
2019-06-25T08:01:33Z
dc.date.issued
2010
dc.identifier.issn
1814-9324
dc.identifier.issn
1814-9332
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/cp-6-85-2010
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/157315
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000157315
dc.description.abstract
During the last glacial period, climate records from the North Atlantic region exhibit a pronounced spectral component corresponding to a period of about 1470 years, which has attracted much attention. This spectral peak is closely related to the recurrence pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. In previous studies a red noise random process, more precisely a first-order autoregressive (AR1) process, was used to evaluate the statistical significance of this peak, with a reported significance of more than 99%. Here we use a simple mechanistic two-state model of DO events, which itself was derived from a much more sophisticated ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, to numerically evaluate the spectral properties of random (i.e., solely noise-driven) events. This way we find that the power spectral density of random DO events differs fundamentally from a simple red noise random process. These results question the applicability of linear spectral analysis for estimating the statistical significance of highly non-linear processes such as DO events. More precisely, to enhance our scientific understanding about the trigger of DO events, we must not consider simple "straw men" as, for example, the AR1 random process, but rather test against realistic alternative descriptions.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2010-02-19
ethz.journal.title
Climate of the Past
ethz.journal.volume
6
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
1
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Clim. past
ethz.pages.start
85
en_US
ethz.pages.end
92
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.nebis
005583758
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-14T12:18:12Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59364ce54198f47438
ethz.ecitpid
pub:35630
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-12T23:05:31Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-06-25T08:01:54Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=Limitations%20of%20red%20noise%20in%20analysing%20Dansgaard-Oeschger%20events&rft.jtitle=Climate%20of%20the%20Past&rft.date=2010&rft.volume=6&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=85&rft.epage=92&rft.issn=1814-9324&1814-9332&rft.au=Braun,%20Holger&Ditlevsen,%20Peter&Kurths,%20J%C3%BCrgen&Mudelsee,%20Manfred&rft.genre=article&rft_id=info:doi/10.5194/cp-6-85-2010&
 Search print copy at ETH Library

Files in this item

Thumbnail

Publication type

Show simple item record