Network Dynamics in the Politics of Climate Change

Abstract

This article assesses to what degree political cooperation on the issue of global climate change is shaped by network effects that result from bilateral and multilateral interactions between international actors. Applying a simulation investigation for empirical network analysis (called Siena) using political event data coded from international newswires from 2001 to 2009, the study finds strong statistical support for network effects in the international political dynamics on climate change. Observed reciprocity and transitivity effects can be seen as an opportunity for enhanced political cooperation on global climate change in the future since such effects of network closure are usually associated with higher levels of collective action. On the other hand, the clearly manifesting dominance of the United States and China in the international politics of climate change could run against the goal of establishing an effective global climate regime after the Kyoto Protocol’s expiration in 2012.