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dc.contributor.author
Smieszek, Timo
dc.contributor.author
Fiebig, Lena
dc.contributor.author
Scholz, Roland W.
dc.date.accessioned
2019-05-16T09:33:44Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-08T22:44:22Z
dc.date.available
2019-05-16T09:33:44Z
dc.date.issued
2009-06-29
dc.identifier.issn
1742-4682
dc.identifier.other
10.1186/1742-4682-6-11
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/17791
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000017791
dc.description.abstract
Background The spread of infectious disease is determined by biological factors, e.g. the duration of the infectious period, and social factors, e.g. the arrangement of potentially contagious contacts. Repetitiveness and clustering of contacts are known to be relevant factors influencing the transmission of droplet or contact transmitted diseases. However, we do not yet completely know under what conditions repetitiveness and clustering should be included for realistically modelling disease spread. Methods We compare two different types of individual-based models: One assumes random mixing without repetition of contacts, whereas the other assumes that the same contacts repeat day-by-day. The latter exists in two variants, with and without clustering. We systematically test and compare how the total size of an outbreak differs between these model types depending on the key parameters transmission probability, number of contacts per day, duration of the infectious period, different levels of clustering and varying proportions of repetitive contacts. Results The simulation runs under different parameter constellations provide the following results: The difference between both model types is highest for low numbers of contacts per day and low transmission probabilities. The number of contacts and the transmission probability have a higher influence on this difference than the duration of the infectious period. Even when only minor parts of the daily contacts are repetitive and clustered can there be relevant differences compared to a purely random mixing model. Conclusion We show that random mixing models provide acceptable estimates of the total outbreak size if the number of contacts per day is high or if the per-contact transmission probability is high, as seen in typical childhood diseases such as measles. In the case of very short infectious periods, for instance, as in Norovirus, models assuming repeating contacts will also behave similarly as random mixing models. If the number of daily contacts or the transmission probability is low, as assumed for MRSA or Ebola, particular consideration should be given to the actual structure of potentially contagious contacts when designing the model.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
BioMed Central
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/
dc.title
Models of epidemics: when contact repetition and clustering should be included
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic
ethz.journal.title
Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling
ethz.journal.volume
6
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
1
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Theor. biol. med. model.
ethz.pages.start
11
en_US
ethz.size
15 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.nebis
005576828
ethz.publication.place
London
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02070 - Dep. Gesundheitswiss. und Technologie / Dep. of Health Sciences and Technology::03780 - Siegrist, Michael / Siegrist, Michael
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02070 - Dep. Gesundheitswiss. und Technologie / Dep. of Health Sciences and Technology::03780 - Siegrist, Michael / Siegrist, Michael
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-08T22:44:27Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59364c820311e76242
ethz.ecitpid
pub:29862
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-13T08:11:37Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2020-02-15T19:04:57Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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