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dc.contributor.author
Prakash, Meher K.
dc.contributor.author
Lang, Brian
dc.contributor.author
Heinrich, Henriette
dc.contributor.author
Valli, Piero V.
dc.contributor.author
Bauerfeind, Peter
dc.contributor.author
Sonnenberg, Amnon
dc.contributor.author
Beerenwinkel, Niko
dc.contributor.author
Misselwitz, Benjamin
dc.date.accessioned
2017-10-26T07:16:33Z
dc.date.available
2017-10-06T02:49:41Z
dc.date.available
2017-10-19T07:42:46Z
dc.date.available
2017-10-26T07:16:33Z
dc.date.issued
2017-06-05
dc.identifier.issn
1472-6947
dc.identifier.other
10.1186/s12911-017-0458-9
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/191081
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000191081
dc.description.abstract
Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality. CRC incidence and mortality can be reduced by several screening strategies, including colonoscopy, but randomized CRC prevention trials face significant obstacles such as the need for large study populations with long follow-up. Therefore, CRC screening strategies will likely be designed and optimized based on computer simulations. Several computational microsimulation tools have been reported for estimating efficiency and cost-effectiveness of CRC prevention. However, none of these tools is publicly available. There is a need for an open source framework to answer practical questions including testing of new screening interventions and adapting findings to local conditions. Methods: We developed and implemented a new microsimulation model, Colon Modeling Open Source Tool (CMOST), for modeling the natural history of CRC, simulating the effects of CRC screening interventions, and calculating the resulting costs. CMOST facilitates automated parameter calibration against epidemiological adenoma prevalence and CRC incidence data. Results: Predictions of CMOST were highly similar compared to a large endoscopic CRC prevention study as well as predictions of existing microsimulation models. We applied CMOST to calculate the optimal timing of a screening colonoscopy. CRC incidence and mortality are reduced most efficiently by a colonoscopy between the ages of 56 and 59; while discounted life years gained (LYG) is maximal at 49–50 years. With a dwell time of 13 years, the most cost-effective screening is at 59 years, at $17,211 discounted USD per LYG. While cost-efficiency varied according to dwell time it did not influence the optimal time point of screening interventions within the tested range. Conclusions: Predictions of CMOST are highly similar compared to a randomized CRC prevention trial as well as those of other microsimulation tools. This open source tool will enable health-economics analyses in for various countries, health-care scenarios and CRC prevention strategies. CMOST is freely available under the GNU General Public License at https://gitlab.com/misselwb/CMOST
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
BioMed Central
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
Microsimulation
en_US
dc.subject
Screening colonoscopies
en_US
dc.subject
Colorectal cancer
en_US
dc.subject
Screening intervals
en_US
dc.subject
Cost-effectiveness
en_US
dc.title
CMOST: an open-source framework for the microsimulation of colorectal cancer screening strategies
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making
ethz.journal.volume
17
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
BMC med. inform. decis. mak.
ethz.pages.start
80
en_US
ethz.size
16 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02060 - Dep. Biosysteme / Dep. of Biosystems Science and Eng.::03790 - Beerenwinkel, Niko / Beerenwinkel, Niko
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02060 - Dep. Biosysteme / Dep. of Biosystems Science and Eng.::03790 - Beerenwinkel, Niko / Beerenwinkel, Niko
ethz.date.deposited
2017-10-06T02:50:03Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-10-19T07:42:49Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2022-03-28T17:51:37Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=CMOST:%20an%20open-source%20framework%20for%20the%20microsimulation%20of%20colorectal%20cancer%20screening%20strategies&rft.jtitle=BMC%20Medical%20Informatics%20and%20Decision%20Making&rft.date=2017-06-05&rft.volume=17&rft.spage=80&rft.issn=1472-6947&rft.au=Prakash,%20Meher%20K.&Lang,%20Brian&Heinrich,%20Henriette&Valli,%20Piero%20V.&Bauerfeind,%20Peter&rft.genre=article&rft_id=info:doi/10.1186/s12911-017-0458-9&
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