Water Resources of the Black Sea Catchment under Future Climate and Landuse Change Projections

Abstract

Abstract: As water resources become further stressed due to increasing levels of societal demand, understanding the effect of climate and landuse change on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance. In this study we used a previously developed hydrologic model of the Black Sea Catchment (BSC) to assess the impact of potential climate and landuse changes on the fresh water availability. The BSC model was built, calibrated, and validated against observed daily river discharge for the period of 1973–2006 using the Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT) as the modeling tool. We employed the A2 and B2 scenarios of 2017–2050 generated by the Danish Regional Climate Model (HIRHAM), and four potential future landuse scenarios based on the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC)’s special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) storylines, to analyze the impact of climate change and landuse change on the water resources of the BSC. The detailed modeling and the ensemble of the scenarios showed that a substantial part of the catchment will likely experience a decrease in freshwater resources by 30 to 50%.