5th Zurich Roundtable on Comprehensive Risk Analysis and Management: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning

Abstract

The Roundtable on “Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning” explored and discussed strategic and methodical approaches to develop future-oriented policies. The first part of the day was devoted to the question of how strategic foresight can be designed and used in corporate management and public policy. Jan Oliver Schwarz (Berlin University of the Arts) provided insights into the concept, rationale, and potential pitfalls of strategic issue management in corporations. Jack Radisch (OECD International Futures Programme) and Beat Habegger (Center of Security Studies ETH Zurich) presented some preliminary results of new studies on country risk management and horizon scanning respectively. The second part of the day focused on two particular methodical approaches that are often used to support the development of future-oriented policies. Olivier da Costa (European Commission) spoke about roadmapping in science and technology policy and connected it to the tools and methods in risk analysis and management. Kristel Van der Elst (World Economic Forum) explained how scenarios can be used to develop a long-term view on the challenges an organization faces and what mistakes in doing so should be avoided. The 5th Zurich Roundtable took place on 5 December 2008 at ETH Zurich. It continued the Roundtable series of the Crisis and Risk Network (CRN), a Swiss-Swedish initiative for international dialog on national-level security risks and vulnerabilities.