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dc.contributor.author
Hauser, Mathias
dc.contributor.author
Gudmundsson, Lukas
dc.contributor.author
Orth, René
dc.contributor.author
Jézéquel, Aglaé
dc.contributor.author
Haustein, Karsten
dc.contributor.author
Vautard, Robert
dc.contributor.author
Van Oldenborgh, Geert J.
dc.contributor.author
Wilcox, Laura
dc.contributor.author
Seneviratne, Sonia I.
dc.date.accessioned
2017-12-13T14:42:11Z
dc.date.available
2017-11-23T06:31:36Z
dc.date.available
2017-12-13T14:42:11Z
dc.date.issued
2017-10
dc.identifier.issn
2328-4277
dc.identifier.other
10.1002/2017EF000612
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/212504
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000212504
dc.description.abstract
Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or droughts, has evolved rapidly in the past years. The approach of “event attribution” compares the occurrence-probability of an event in the present, factual climate with its probability in a hypothetical, counterfactual climate without human-induced climate change. Several methods can be used for event attribution, based on climate model simulations and observations, and usually researchers only assess a subset of methods and data sources. Here, we explore the role of methodological choices for the attribution of the 2015 meteorological summer drought in Europe. We present contradicting conclusions on the relevance of human influence as a function of the chosen data source and event attribution methodology. Assessments using the maximum number of models and counterfactual climates with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations point to an enhanced drought risk in Europe. However, other evaluations show contradictory evidence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-method framework in event attribution research, especially for events with a low signal-to-noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Wiley
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject
Event attribution
en_US
dc.subject
2015 European drought
en_US
dc.subject
climate change
en_US
dc.title
Methods and Model Dependency of Extreme Event Attribution: The 2015 European Drought
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2017-10-20
ethz.journal.title
Earth's Future
ethz.journal.volume
5
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
10
en_US
ethz.pages.start
1034
en_US
ethz.pages.end
1043
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Hoboken, NJ
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
ethz.date.deposited
2017-11-23T06:31:46Z
ethz.source
SCOPUS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-12-13T14:42:14Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-11-06T05:32:01Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=Methods%20and%20Model%20Dependency%20of%20Extreme%20Event%20Attribution:%20The%202015%20European%20Drought&rft.jtitle=Earth's%20Future&rft.date=2017-10&rft.volume=5&rft.issue=10&rft.spage=1034&rft.epage=1043&rft.issn=2328-4277&rft.au=Hauser,%20Mathias&Gudmundsson,%20Lukas&Orth,%20Ren%C3%A9&J%C3%A9z%C3%A9quel,%20Agla%C3%A9&Haustein,%20Karsten&rft.genre=article&
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