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dc.contributor.author
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.
dc.contributor.author
Siliverstovs, Boriss
dc.date.accessioned
2018-03-07T11:03:28Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-09T05:14:51Z
dc.date.available
2018-03-07T11:03:28Z
dc.date.issued
2009-02
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/21810
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-a-005778341
dc.description.abstract
The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/ revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts of GDP, private consumption, and investment growth rates are shown to be systematically upward biased. Finally, early forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than na¨ıve forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich
dc.rights.uri
http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/
dc.subject
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
en_US
dc.subject
forecasts
en_US
dc.subject
FOREIGN TRADE + FOREIGN ECONOMY
en_US
dc.subject
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
en_US
dc.subject
BUSINESS FORECASTS
en_US
dc.subject
GERMANY (CENTRAL EUROPE). FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY
en_US
dc.subject
FORECASTING BASED ON STATISTICS (MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS)
en_US
dc.subject
REAL-TIME SYSTEMS + EMBEDDED SYSTEMS (OPERATING SYSTEMS)
en_US
dc.subject
MAXIMUM ENTROPY METHOD (MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS)
en_US
dc.subject
BRUTTONATIONALEINKOMMEN
en_US
dc.subject
MACROECONOMIC MODELS (OPERATIONS RESEARCH)
en_US
dc.subject
KAPITALANLAGE
en_US
dc.subject
ECHTZEITSYSTEME + EINGEBETTETE SYSTEME (BETRIEBSSYSTEME)
en_US
dc.subject
CAPITAL INVESTMENT
en_US
dc.subject
DESKRIPTIVE ÖKONOMISCH-MATHEMATISCHE MODELLE (OPERATIONS RESEARCH)
en_US
dc.subject
PRIVATER KONSUM
en_US
dc.subject
SIGNAL-RAUSCH-VERHÄLTNIS (MESSTECHNIK, PHYSIK)
en_US
dc.subject
DEUTSCHLAND (MITTELEUROPA). BUNDESREPUBLIK DEUTSCHLAND
en_US
dc.subject
DESCRIPTIVE ECONOMIC-MATHEMATICAL MODELS (OPERATIONS RESEARCH)
en_US
dc.subject
BETRIEBSWIRTSCHAFTLICHE PROGNOSE
en_US
dc.subject
real-time data
en_US
dc.subject
MAKROÖKONOMISCHE MODELLE (OPERATIONS RESEARCH)
en_US
dc.subject
AUSSENHANDEL + AUSSENWIRTSCHAFT
en_US
dc.subject
Quality of statistical data
en_US
dc.subject
PROGNOSEN AUF STATISTISCHER BASIS (MATHEMATISCHE STATISTIK)
en_US
dc.subject
signal-to-noise ratio
en_US
dc.subject
MAXIMUM-ENTROPIE-METHODE (MATHEMATISCHE STATISTIK)
en_US
dc.subject
revisions
en_US
dc.subject
SIGNAL-TO-NOISE RATIO (MEASUREMENT TECHNIQUES, PHYSICS)
en_US
dc.title
Do forecasters inform or reassure?
en_US
dc.type
Working Paper
dc.rights.license
In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted
ethz.title.subtitle
Evaluation of the German real-time data
en_US
ethz.journal.title
KOF Working Papers
ethz.journal.volume
215
en_US
ethz.size
24 p.
en_US
ethz.code.ddc
3 - Social sciences::330 - Economics
en_US
ethz.code.ddc
5 - Science::510 - Mathematics
en_US
ethz.notes
.
en_US
ethz.identifier.nebis
005778341
ethz.publication.place
Zürich
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02120 - Dep. Management, Technologie und Ökon. / Dep. of Management, Technology, and Ec.::02525 - KOF Konjunkturforschungsstelle / KOF Swiss Economic Institute
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-09T05:15:05Z
ethz.source
ECOL
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59366ad0652c041591
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59364cf44b01623093
ethz.ecolpid
eth:41594
ethz.ecitpid
pub:36593
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-24T09:49:55Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-11-06T15:01:46Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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