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dc.contributor.author
Mitchell, Daniel
dc.contributor.author
Davini, Paolo
dc.contributor.author
Harvey, Ben
dc.contributor.author
Massey, Neil
dc.contributor.author
Haustein, Karsten
dc.contributor.author
Woollings, Tim
dc.contributor.author
Jones, Richard
dc.contributor.author
Otto, Fredi
dc.contributor.author
Guillod, Benoit
dc.contributor.author
Sparrow, Sarah
dc.contributor.author
Wallom, David
dc.contributor.author
Allen, Myles
dc.date.accessioned
2017-12-07T11:18:49Z
dc.date.available
2017-12-06T13:33:34Z
dc.date.available
2017-12-07T11:18:49Z
dc.date.issued
2017-06
dc.identifier.issn
0930-7575
dc.identifier.issn
1432-0894
dc.identifier.other
10.1007/s00382-016-3308-z
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/218359
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000218359
dc.description.abstract
Atmospheric modes of variability relevant for extreme temperature and precipitation events are evaluated in models currently being used for extreme event attribution. A 100 member initial condition ensemble of the global circulation model HadAM3P is compared with both the multi-model ensemble from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the CMIP5 atmosphere-only counterparts (AMIP5). The use of HadAM3P allows for huge ensembles to be computed relatively fast, thereby providing unique insights into the dynamics of extremes. The analysis focuses on mid Northern Latitudes (primarily Europe) during winter, and is compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis. The tri-modal Atlantic eddy-driven jet distribution is remarkably well captured in HadAM3P, but not so in the CMIP5 or AMIP5 multi-model mean, although individual models fare better. The well known underestimation of blocking in the Atlantic region is apparent in CMIP5 and AMIP5, and also, to a lesser extent, in HadAM3P. Pacific blocking features are well produced in all modeling initiatives. Blocking duration is biased towards models reproducing too many short-lived events in all three modelling systems. Associated storm tracks are too zonal over the Atlantic in the CMIP5 and AMIP5 ensembles, but better simulated in HadAM3P with the exception of being too weak over Western Europe. In all cases, the CMIP5 and AMIP5 performances were almost identical, suggesting that the biases in atmospheric modes considered here are not strongly coupled to SSTs, and perhaps other model characteristics such as resolution are more important. For event attribution studies, it is recommended that rather than taking statistics over the entire CMIP5 or AMIP5 available models, only models capable of producing the relevant dynamical phenomena be employed.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Springer
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
Event attribution
en_US
dc.subject
Dynamics
en_US
dc.subject
Mid-latitudes
en_US
dc.subject
Extreme
en_US
dc.title
Assessing mid-latitude dynamics in extreme event attribution systems
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2017-08-23
ethz.journal.title
Climate Dynamics
ethz.journal.volume
48
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
11-12
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Clim. dyn.
ethz.pages.start
3889
en_US
ethz.pages.end
3901
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.publication.place
Heidelberg
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02723 - Institut für Umweltentscheidungen / Institute for Environmental Decisions::09576 - Bresch, David Niklaus / Bresch, David Niklaus
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02723 - Institut für Umweltentscheidungen / Institute for Environmental Decisions::09576 - Bresch, David Niklaus / Bresch, David Niklaus
ethz.date.deposited
2017-12-06T13:33:35Z
ethz.source
FORM
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-12-07T11:19:01Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-02-02T13:54:54Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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