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Exploring the synergies between benefit transfer and expert elicitation: A pilot application to the Baltic Sea
Martinez Cruz, Adan L.
- Conference Paper
This study explores whether expert elicitation may improve the accuracy of international benefit transfers. We report results from an expert elicitation protocol that has been piloted on undergraduate students attending a non-market valuation class. The good under study is the reduction of marine eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. Experts are requested to adjust the willingness to pay (WTP) of a Finnish person to represent the WTP of an identical person who lives in Sweden, Denmark, Germany or Poland. This strategy represents an advancement with respect to previous benefit transfer strategies because, by keeping socio-economic factors fixed, it allows the adjustment of WTP values to factors difficult to control for in international transfers, e.g. trust in government. We compare transferred values reported by experts against the WTP values from the original contingent valuation study conducted on nationally representative samples of the inhabitants of these countries. We find encouraging preliminary results: experts transfer WTP i) to Poland with accuracy (4% transfer error); ii) to Sweden and Germany with transfer errors of 31% and 46%, respectively; and iii) to Denmark with large inaccuracy (148%). The approach in this paper can be seen as a step to integrate expert judgment into benefit transfer exercises in a transparent and structured way Show more
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Organisational unit03539 - Filippini, Massimo
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