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dc.contributor.author
Staffell, Iain
dc.contributor.author
Pfenninger, Stefan
dc.date.accessioned
2018-04-04T11:08:47Z
dc.date.available
2018-01-08T03:49:46Z
dc.date.available
2018-04-04T11:08:47Z
dc.date.issued
2018-02-15
dc.identifier.issn
0360-5442
dc.identifier.issn
1873-6785
dc.identifier.other
10.1016/j.energy.2017.12.051
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/226183
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000226183
dc.description.abstract
Wind and solar power have experienced rapid cost declines and are being deployed at scale. However, their output variability remains a key problem for managing electricity systems, and the implications of multi-day to multi-year variability are still poorly understood. As other energy-using sectors are electrified, the shape and variability of electricity demand will also change. We develop an open framework for quantifying the impacts of weather on electricity supply and demand using the Renewables.ninja and DESSTINEE models. We demonstrate this using a case study of Britain using National Grid's Two Degrees scenario forwards to 2030. We find the British electricity system is rapidly moving into unprecedented territory, with peak demand rising above 70 GW due to electric heating, and intermittent renewable output exceeding demand as early as 2021. Hourly ramp-rates widen by 50% and year-to-year variability increases by 80%, showing why future power system studies must consider multiple years of data, and the influence of weather on both supply and demand. Our framework is globally applicable, and allows detailed scenarios of hourly electricity supply and demand to be explored using only limited input data such as annual quantities from government scenarios or broader energy systems models.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Elsevier
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
Electricity
en_US
dc.subject
Renewables
en_US
dc.subject
Wind
en_US
dc.subject
Solar
en_US
dc.subject
Demand
en_US
dc.subject
Weather variability
en_US
dc.title
The increasing impact of weather on electricity supply and demand
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2017-12-19
ethz.journal.title
Energy
ethz.journal.volume
145
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Energy
ethz.pages.start
65
en_US
ethz.pages.end
78
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Amsterdam
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2018-01-08T03:49:50Z
ethz.source
SCOPUS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2018-04-04T11:08:52Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-12-02T09:26:02Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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