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dc.contributor.author
Pendergrass, Angeline G.
dc.contributor.author
Knutti, Reto
dc.contributor.author
Lehner, Flavio
dc.contributor.author
Deser, Clara
dc.contributor.author
Sanderson, Benjamin M.
dc.date.accessioned
2018-01-26T15:19:12Z
dc.date.available
2018-01-09T02:29:38Z
dc.date.available
2018-01-26T15:19:12Z
dc.date.issued
2017
dc.identifier.other
10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/226638
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000226638
dc.description.abstract
Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climate models increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3–4% K−1 globally, 4–5% K−1 over land and 2–4% K−1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Nature Publishing Group
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.title
Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2017-12-21
ethz.journal.title
Scientific Reports
ethz.journal.volume
7
en_US
ethz.pages.start
17966
en_US
ethz.size
9 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.publication.place
London
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.date.deposited
2018-01-09T02:29:58Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2018-01-26T15:19:18Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-01-02T11:29:07Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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