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dc.contributor.author
Nauels, Alexander
dc.contributor.author
Rogelj, Joeri
dc.contributor.author
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
dc.contributor.author
Meinshausen, Malte
dc.contributor.author
Mengel, Matthias
dc.date.accessioned
2018-01-17T15:49:01Z
dc.date.available
2017-12-15T02:51:10Z
dc.date.available
2017-12-19T13:30:58Z
dc.date.available
2018-01-09T15:38:00Z
dc.date.available
2018-01-17T15:49:01Z
dc.date.issued
2017-10-26
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9326
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9318
dc.identifier.other
10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/230713
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000221340
dc.description.abstract
In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986–2005 of 89 cm (likely range: 57–130 cm) for SSP1, 105 cm (73–150 cm) for SSP2, 105 cm (75–147 cm) for SSP3, 93 cm (63–133 cm) for SSP4, and 132 cm (95–189 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios are dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 52 cm (34–75 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm−2, 62 cm (40–96 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm−2, 75 cm (47–113 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm−2, and 91 cm (61–132 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm−2. Average 2081–2100 annual SLR rates are 5 mm yr−1 and 19 mm yr−1 for FT 2.6 Wm−2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. We find that 2100 median SSP SLR projections could be limited to around 50 cm if 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial stay below 850 GtC, with a global coal phase-out nearly completed by that time. For SSP mitigation scenarios, a 2050 carbon price of 100 US$2005 tCO2 −1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 65 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Institute of Physics
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subject
sea level rise
en_US
dc.subject
Shared socioeconomic pathways
en_US
dc.subject
climate change
en_US
dc.subject
climate impacts
en_US
dc.subject
climate mitigation
en_US
dc.subject
climate scenarios
en_US
dc.subject
antarctic dynamics
en_US
dc.title
Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2017-10-26
ethz.journal.title
Environmental Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
12
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
11
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Environ. res. lett.
ethz.pages.start
114002
en_US
ethz.size
11 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Britstol
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2017-12-15T02:51:11Z
ethz.source
SCOPUS
ethz.source
FORM
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2018-01-18T11:31:53Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-11-06T07:01:47Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
dc.identifier.olduri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/221340
dc.identifier.olduri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/226897
ethz.COinS
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