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dc.contributor.author
James, Rachel
dc.contributor.author
Washington, Richard
dc.contributor.author
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
dc.contributor.author
Rogelj, Joeri
dc.contributor.author
Conway, Declan
dc.date.accessioned
2018-01-24T12:32:12Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T19:59:07Z
dc.date.available
2018-01-22T16:14:13Z
dc.date.available
2018-01-09T15:34:00Z
dc.date.available
2018-01-22T16:09:37Z
dc.date.available
2018-01-24T12:32:12Z
dc.date.issued
2017-03
dc.identifier.issn
1757-7780
dc.identifier.issn
1757-7799
dc.identifier.other
10.1002/wcc.457
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/233655
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000128813
dc.description.abstract
The Paris Agreement long-term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub-selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to compare 2°C with 1.5°C, but some demonstrate potential avenues for useful research. Nevertheless, there are methodological challenges associated with the use of existing climate model experiments, which are generally designed to model responses to different levels of greenhouse gas forcing, rather than to model climate responses to a specific level of forcing that targets a given level of global temperature change. Novel approaches may be required to address policy questions, in particular: to differentiate between half degree warming increments while accounting for different sources of uncertainty; to examine mechanisms of regional climate change including the potential for nonlinear responses; and to explore the relevance of time-lagged processes in the climate system and declining emissions, and the resulting sensitivity to alternative mitigation pathways.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Wiley
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.title
Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets
en_US
dc.type
Review Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2017-01-24
ethz.journal.title
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change
ethz.journal.volume
8
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
2
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Wiley interdiscip. rev. , Clim. chang.
ethz.pages.start
e457
en_US
ethz.size
23 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.identifier.nebis
007428737
ethz.publication.place
Malden
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T19:59:40Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.source
FORM
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59365548adaf544004
ethz.ecitpid
pub:191741
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2018-01-24T12:30:38Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-11-06T07:19:26Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
dc.identifier.olduri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/128813
dc.identifier.olduri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/226894
ethz.COinS
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