Grundlagenbericht für die Perspektiven des Schweizer Personenverkehrs bis 2030
Axhausen, Kay W.
The Swiss federal government maintains a set of long term forecasts to guide its policy making, which are regularly updated. As part of the latest update, the Institut für Verkehrsplanung und Transportsysteme (IVT; Institute for Transport Planning and Systems) was asked to provide a trend forecast of the ownership of mobility tools and of the miles travelled by mode by the Swiss residential population. The time horizon was 2000 to 2030 with intermediate forecasts for 2005, 2010 and 2020.<br/><br/>The mobility tool forecasts (driving license, car availability/ownership, national season ticket hip, national public transport discount card and local/regional season ticket ownership) were provided by a sequence of multinomial logit models, which are driven cohort, age, gender, income, residential location by type and by travel times to the local centres. The forecasts of the independent variables were provided by the UVEK and BFS.<br/><br/>Based on the mobility tool ownership the miles travelled were forecast employing a set of independent regression models estimated using the ordinary least squares approach. The set of independent variables is similar to the one use for the mobility tool ownership models, but for a time trend, which captures the omitted variables, e.g. the costs of travel, the ongoing suburbanization, changing composition of the labour force, to name the most prominent ones.<br/><br/>The forecasts were calculated for each age and gender group in each of the about 3000 Swiss municipalities. A Microsoft-Access based tool supports these calculations Show more
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PublisherBundesamt für Raumentwicklung
SubjectPrognosen; Personenverkehr; Besitz von Mobilitätswerkzeugen; Nutzung von Mobilitätswerkzeugen; Besetzungsgrad; Modellierung
Organisational unit03521 - Axhausen, Kay W.
02226 - NSL - Netzwerk Stadt und Landschaft / NSL - Network City and Landscape
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