Will Half a Degree Make a Difference? Robust Projections of Indices of Mean and Extreme Climate in Europe Under 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C Global Warming

Open access
Date
2018-01Type
- Journal Article
Citations
Cited 78 times in
Web of Science
Cited 83 times in
Scopus
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
Based on high‐resolution models, we investigate the change in climate extremes and impact‐relevant indicators over Europe under different levels of global warming. We specifically assess the robustness of the changes and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C. Compared to 1.5°C world, a further 0.5°C warming results in a robust change of minimum summer temperature indices (mean, Tn10p, and Tn900p) over more than 70% of Europe. Robust changes (more than 0.5°C) in maximum temperature affect smaller areas (usually less than 20%). There is a substantial nonlinear change of fixed‐threshold indices, with more than 60% increase of the number of tropical nights over southern Europe and more than 50% decrease in the number of frost days over central Europe. The change in mean precipitation due to 0.5°C warming is mostly nonsignificant at the grid point level, but, locally, it is accompanied by a more marked change in extreme rainfall. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000239853Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
Geophysical Research LettersVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
WileyOrganisational unit
03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
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Show all metadata
Citations
Cited 78 times in
Web of Science
Cited 83 times in
Scopus
ETH Bibliography
yes
Altmetrics