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dc.contributor.author
Zaniolo, Marta
dc.contributor.author
Giuliani, Matteo
dc.contributor.author
Castelletti, Andrea F.
dc.contributor.author
Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel
dc.date.accessioned
2018-05-07T10:23:40Z
dc.date.available
2018-05-02T03:18:36Z
dc.date.available
2018-05-07T10:23:40Z
dc.date.issued
2018
dc.identifier.issn
1027-5606
dc.identifier.issn
1607-7938
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/hess-22-2409-2018
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/261739
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000261739
dc.description.abstract
Socio-economic costs of drought are progressively increasing worldwide due to undergoing alterations of hydro-meteorological regimes induced by climate change. Although drought management is largely studied in the literature, traditional drought indexes often fail at detecting critical events in highly regulated systems, where natural water availability is conditioned by the operation of water infrastructures such as dams, diversions, and pumping wells. Here, ad hoc index formulations are usually adopted based on empirical combinations of several, supposed-to-be significant, hydro-meteorological variables. These customized formulations, however, while effective in the design basin, can hardly be generalized and transferred to different contexts. In this study, we contribute FRIDA (FRamework for Index-based Drought Analysis), a novel framework for the automatic design of basin-customized drought indexes. In contrast to ad hoc empirical approaches, FRIDA is fully automated, generalizable, and portable across different basins. FRIDA builds an index representing a surrogate of the drought conditions of the basin, computed by combining all the relevant available information about the water circulating in the system identified by means of a feature extraction algorithm. We used the Wrapper for Quasi-Equally Informative Subset Selection (W-QEISS), which features a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to find Pareto-efficient subsets of variables by maximizing the wrapper accuracy, minimizing the number of selected variables, and optimizing relevance and redundancy of the subset. The preferred variable subset is selected among the efficient solutions and used to formulate the final index according to alternative model structures. We apply FRIDA to the case study of the Jucar river basin (Spain), a drought-prone and highly regulated Mediterranean water resource system, where an advanced drought management plan relying on the formulation of an ad hoc "state index" is used for triggering drought management measures. The state index was constructed empirically with a trial-and-error process begun in the 1980s and finalized in 2007, guided by the experts from the Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (CHJ). Our results show that the automated variable selection outcomes align with CHJ's 25-year-long empirical refinement. In addition, the resultant FRIDA index outperforms the official State Index in terms of accuracy in reproducing the target variable and cardinality of the selected inputs set.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus Publications
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.title
Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2018-04-20
ethz.journal.title
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ethz.journal.volume
22
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
4
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Hydrol. earth syst. sci.
ethz.pages.start
2409
en_US
ethz.pages.end
2424
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Gottingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2018-05-02T03:19:03Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2018-05-07T10:23:45Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2018-12-02T09:56:32Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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