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dc.contributor.author
Zaherpour, Jamal
dc.contributor.author
Gosling, Simon N.
dc.contributor.author
Mount, Nick
dc.contributor.author
Müller Schmied, Hannes
dc.contributor.author
Veldkamp, Ted I.E.
dc.contributor.author
Dankers, Rutger
dc.contributor.author
Eisner, Stephanie
dc.contributor.author
Gerten, Dieter
dc.contributor.author
Gudmundsson, Lukas
dc.contributor.author
Haddeland, Ingjerd
dc.contributor.author
Hanasaki, Naota
dc.contributor.author
Kim, Hyungjun
dc.contributor.author
Leng, Guoyong
dc.contributor.author
Liu, Junguo
dc.contributor.author
Masaki, Yoshimitsu
dc.contributor.author
Oki, Taikan
dc.contributor.author
Pokhrel, Yadu
dc.contributor.author
Satoh, Yusuke
dc.contributor.author
Schewe, Jacob
dc.contributor.author
Wada, Yoshihide
dc.date.accessioned
2018-06-27T09:31:59Z
dc.date.available
2018-06-27T04:16:02Z
dc.date.available
2018-06-27T09:31:59Z
dc.date.issued
2018-06-12
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9326
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9318
dc.identifier.other
10.1088/1748-9326/aac547
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/272526
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000272526
dc.description.abstract
Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catchments, spatially distributed across eight global hydrobelts. The performance of each model and the ensemble mean is examined with respect to their ability to replicate observed mean and extreme runoff under human-influenced conditions. Application of a novel integrated evaluation metric to quantify the models' ability to simulate timeseries of monthly runoff suggests that the models generally perform better in the wetter equatorial and northern hydrobelts than in drier southern hydrobelts. When model outputs are temporally aggregated to assess mean annual and extreme runoff, the models perform better. Nevertheless, we find a general trend in the majority of models towards the overestimation of mean annual runoff and all indicators of upper and lower extreme runoff. The models struggle to capture the timing of the seasonal cycle, particularly in northern hydrobelts, while in southern hydrobelts the models struggle to reproduce the magnitude of the seasonal cycle. It is noteworthy that over all hydrological indicators, the ensemble mean fails to perform better than any individual model—a finding that challenges the commonly held perception that model ensemble estimates deliver superior performance over individual models. The study highlights the need for continued model development and improvement. It also suggests that caution should be taken when summarising the simulations from a model ensemble based upon its mean output.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Institute of Physics
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subject
global hydrological models
en_US
dc.subject
land surface models
en_US
dc.subject
human impacts
en_US
dc.subject
extreme events
en_US
dc.subject
model evaluation
en_US
dc.subject
model validation
en_US
dc.title
Worldwide evaluation of mean and extreme runoff from six global-scale hydrological models that account for human impacts
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
ethz.journal.title
Environmental Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
13
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
6
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Environ. res. lett.
ethz.pages.start
065015
en_US
ethz.size
18 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Bristol
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03778 - Seneviratne, Sonia / Seneviratne, Sonia
ethz.date.deposited
2018-06-27T04:16:40Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2018-06-27T09:32:11Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-01-02T13:17:36Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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