Climate-induced shifts in leaf unfolding and frost risk of European trees and shrubs

Open access
Date
2018Type
- Journal Article
Citations
Cited 46 times in
Web of Science
Cited 45 times in
Scopus
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
Climate warming has advanced leaf unfolding of trees and shrubs, thus extending the growing period but potentially exposing plants to increased frost risk. The relative shifts in the timing of leaf unfolding vs. the timing and intensity of frost events determine whether frost risk changes under climate warming. Here we test whether the frost risk for unfolding leaves of 13 European tree and shrub species has changed over more than 60 years using dynamic state-space models and phenological observations from 264 sites located between 200 and 1900 m a.s.l. across Switzerland. Trees and shrubs currently feature sufficient safety margins regarding frost risk, which increase from early- to late-leafing species and tend to decrease with increasing elevation. Particularly after 1970 to 1990 and at higher elevations, leaf unfolding has advanced across all species. While the time between the last critical frost and leaf unfolding has shifted from predominantly positive trends in the late 1950s and 1960s to a trend reversal since the 2000s, the minimum temperature during leaf unfolding has mostly increased since the 1980s. These dynamic shifts in leaf unfolding and frost risk demonstrate species- and site-specific responses of trees and shrubs to climate cooling and warming. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000273052Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
Scientific ReportsVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
Nature Publishing GroupOrganisational unit
03535 - Bugmann, Harald / Bugmann, Harald
00002 - ETH Zürich
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Citations
Cited 46 times in
Web of Science
Cited 45 times in
Scopus
ETH Bibliography
yes
Altmetrics