Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author
Egorova, Tatiana
dc.contributor.author
Rozanov, Eugene
dc.contributor.author
Arsenović, Pavle
dc.contributor.author
Peter, Thomas
dc.contributor.author
Schmutz, Werner
dc.date.accessioned
2019-02-01T10:03:55Z
dc.date.available
2019-01-04T03:50:50Z
dc.date.available
2019-02-01T10:03:55Z
dc.date.issued
2018-11-27
dc.identifier.issn
2296-6463
dc.identifier.other
10.3389/feart.2018.00206
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/313643
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000313643
dc.description.abstract
The warming observed in the early 20th century (1910–1940) is one of the most intriguing and less understood climate anomalies of the 20th century. To investigate the contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors to changes in the surface temperature, we performed seven model experiments using the chemistry-climate model with interactive ocean SOCOL3-MPIOM. Contributions of energetic particle precipitation, heavily (shortwave UV) and weakly (longwave UV, visible, and infrared) absorbed solar irradiances, well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs), tropospheric ozone precursors, and volcanic eruptions were considered separately. Model results suggest only about 0.3 K of global and annual mean warming during the considered 1910–1940 period, which is smaller than the trend obtained from observations by about 25%. We found that half of the simulated global warming is caused by the increase of WMGHGs (CO2, CH4, and N2O), while the increase of the weakly absorbed solar irradiance is responsible for approximately one third of the total warming. Because the behavior of WMGHGs is well constrained, only higher solar forcing or the inclusion of new forcing mechanisms can help to reach better agreement with observations. The other forcing agents considered (heavily absorbed UV, energetic particles, volcanic eruptions, and tropospheric ozone precursors) contribute less than 20% to the annual and global mean warming; however, they can be important on regional/seasonal scales.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Frontiers Media
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
climate change
en_US
dc.subject
20th century
en_US
dc.subject
solar irradiance
en_US
dc.subject
greenhouse gases
en_US
dc.subject
climate model
en_US
dc.title
Contributions of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcing Agents to the Early 20th Century Warming
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
Frontiers in Earth Science
ethz.journal.volume
6
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Front. earth sci.
ethz.pages.start
206
en_US
ethz.size
8 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.publication.place
Lausanne
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2019-01-04T03:50:51Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2019-02-01T10:04:09Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-02-01T10:04:09Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=Contributions%20of%20Natural%20and%20Anthropogenic%20Forcing%20Agents%20to%20the%20Early%2020th%20Century%20Warming&rft.jtitle=Frontiers%20in%20Earth%20Science&rft.date=2018-11-27&rft.volume=6&rft.spage=206&rft.issn=2296-6463&rft.au=Egorova,%20Tatiana&Rozanov,%20Eugene&Arsenovi%C4%87,%20Pavle&Peter,%20Thomas&Schmutz,%20Werner&rft.genre=article&
 Search via SFX

Files in this item

Thumbnail

Publication type

Show simple item record