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dc.contributor.author
Cailleret, Maxime
dc.contributor.author
Dakos, Vasilis
dc.contributor.author
Jansen, Steven
dc.contributor.author
Robert, Elisabeth M.R.
dc.contributor.author
Aakala, Tuomas
dc.contributor.author
Amoroso, Mariano M.
dc.contributor.author
Antos, Joe A.
dc.contributor.author
Bigler, Christof
dc.contributor.author
Bugmann, Harald
dc.contributor.author
Caccianaga, Marco
dc.contributor.author
Camarero, Jesús Julio
dc.contributor.author
Cherubini, Paolo
dc.contributor.author
Coyea, Marie R.
dc.contributor.author
Čufar, Katarina
dc.contributor.author
Das, Adrian J.
dc.contributor.author
Davi, Hendrik
dc.contributor.author
Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo
dc.contributor.author
Gillner, Sten
dc.contributor.author
Haavik, Laurel J.
dc.contributor.author
Hartmann, Henrik
dc.contributor.author
Hereş, Ana-Maria
dc.contributor.author
Hultine, Kevin R.
dc.contributor.author
Janda, Pavel
dc.contributor.author
Kane, Jeffrey M.
dc.contributor.author
Kharuk, Viachelsav I.
dc.contributor.author
Kitzberger, Thomas
dc.contributor.author
Klein, Tamir
dc.contributor.author
Levanic, Tom
dc.contributor.author
Linares, Juan-Carlos
dc.contributor.author
Lombardi, Fabio
dc.contributor.author
Mäkinen, Harri
dc.contributor.author
Mészáros, Ilona
dc.contributor.author
Metsaranta, Juha M.
dc.contributor.author
Oberhuber, Walter
dc.contributor.author
Papadopoulos, Andreas
dc.contributor.author
Petritan, Any M.
dc.contributor.author
Rohner, Brigitte
dc.contributor.author
Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel
dc.contributor.author
Smith, Jeremy M.
dc.contributor.author
Stan, Amanda B.
dc.contributor.author
Stojanović, Dejan B.
dc.contributor.author
Suarez, Maria-Laura
dc.contributor.author
Svoboda, Miroslav
dc.contributor.author
Trotsiuk, Volodymyr
dc.contributor.author
Villalba, Ricardo
dc.contributor.author
Westwood, Alana R.
dc.contributor.author
Wyckoff, Peter H.
dc.contributor.author
Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi
dc.date.accessioned
2019-02-01T11:52:50Z
dc.date.available
2019-01-13T08:34:54Z
dc.date.available
2019-01-22T13:12:57Z
dc.date.available
2019-02-01T11:52:50Z
dc.date.issued
2019-01-08
dc.identifier.issn
1664-462X
dc.identifier.other
10.3389/fpls.2018.01964
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/315307
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000315307
dc.description.abstract
Tree mortality is a key driver of forest dynamics and its occurrence is projected to increase in the future due to climate change. Despite recent advances in our understanding of the physiological mechanisms leading to death, we still lack robust indicators of mortality risk that could be applied at the individual tree scale. Here, we build on a previous contribution exploring the differences in growth level between trees that died and survived a given mortality event to assess whether changes in temporal autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony in time-series of annual radial growth data can be used as early warning signals of mortality risk. Taking advantage of a unique global ring-width database of 3065 dead trees and 4389 living trees growing together at 198 sites (belonging to 36 gymnosperm and angiosperm species), we analyzed temporal changes in autocorrelation, variance, and synchrony before tree death (diachronic analysis), and also compared these metrics between trees that died and trees that survived a given mortality event (synchronic analysis). Changes in autocorrelation were a poor indicator of mortality risk. However, we found a gradual increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony in the last ∼20 years before mortality of gymnosperms, irrespective of the cause of mortality. These changes could be associated with drought-induced alterations in carbon economy and allocation patterns. In angiosperms, we did not find any consistent changes in any metric. Such lack of any signal might be explained by the relatively high capacity of angiosperms to recover after a stress-induced growth decline. Our analysis provides a robust method for estimating early-warning signals of tree mortality based on annual growth data. In addition to the frequently reported decrease in growth rates, an increase in inter-annual growth variability and a decrease in growth synchrony may be powerful predictors of gymnosperm mortality risk, but not necessarily so for angiosperms.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Frontiers Research Foundation
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
tree mortality
en_US
dc.subject
Ring-width
en_US
dc.subject
Forest
en_US
dc.subject
Growth
en_US
dc.subject
Resilience indicators
en_US
dc.subject
drought
en_US
dc.subject
biotic agents
en_US
dc.subject
variance
en_US
dc.title
Early-Warning Signals of Individual Tree Mortality Based on Annual Radial Growth
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2019-01
ethz.journal.title
Frontiers in Plant Science
ethz.journal.volume
9
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Front. Plant Sci.
ethz.pages.start
1964
en_US
ethz.size
14 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.grant
Predicting growth-dependent tree mortality: a key challenge for population ecology
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Lausanne
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02722 - Institut für Terrestrische Oekosysteme / Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems::03535 - Bugmann, Harald / Bugmann, Harald
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02703 - Institut für Agrarwissenschaften / Institute of Agricultural Sciences::03648 - Buchmann, Nina / Buchmann, Nina
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02722 - Institut für Terrestrische Oekosysteme / Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems::03535 - Bugmann, Harald / Bugmann, Harald
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02703 - Institut für Agrarwissenschaften / Institute of Agricultural Sciences::03648 - Buchmann, Nina / Buchmann, Nina
ethz.grant.agreementno
140968
ethz.grant.fundername
SNF
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100001711
ethz.grant.program
Projektförderung in Biologie und Medizin (Abteilung III)
ethz.date.deposited
2019-01-13T08:35:10Z
ethz.source
FORM
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2019-01-22T13:13:08Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-02-01T11:53:02Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
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