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dc.contributor.author
Fiedler, Stephanie
dc.contributor.author
Kinne, Stefan
dc.contributor.author
Huang, Wan Ting Katty
dc.contributor.author
Räisänen, Petri
dc.contributor.author
O'Donnell, Declan
dc.contributor.author
Bellouin, Nicolas
dc.contributor.author
Stier, Philip
dc.contributor.author
Merikanto, Joonas
dc.contributor.author
Van Noije, Twan
dc.contributor.author
Makkonen, Risto
dc.contributor.author
Lohmann, Ulrike
dc.date.accessioned
2019-06-04T09:13:18Z
dc.date.available
2019-06-01T02:28:53Z
dc.date.available
2019-06-04T09:09:56Z
dc.date.available
2019-06-04T09:13:18Z
dc.date.issued
2019-05-22
dc.identifier.issn
1680-7375
dc.identifier.issn
1680-7367
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/acp-19-6821-2019
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/344957
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000344957
dc.description.abstract
This study assesses the change in anthropogenic aerosol forcing from the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s. Both decades had similar global-mean anthropogenic aerosol optical depths but substantially different global distributions. For both years, we quantify (i) the forcing spread due to model-internal variability and (ii) the forcing spread among models. Our assessment is based on new ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations with five state-of-the-art Earth system models. Four of these models will be used in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016). Here, the complexity of the anthropogenic aerosol has been reduced in the participating models. In all our simulations, we prescribe the same patterns of the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and associated effects on the cloud droplet number concentration. We calculate the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF). Their difference defines the net contribution from rapid adjustments. Our simulations show a model spread in ERF from −0.4 to −0.9 W m−2. The standard deviation in annual ERF is 0.3 W m−2, based on 180 individual estimates from each participating model. This result implies that identifying the model spread in ERF due to systematic differences requires averaging over a sufficiently large number of years. Moreover, we find almost identical ERFs for the mid-1970s and mid-2000s for individual models, although there are major model differences in natural aerosols and clouds. The model-ensemble mean ERF is −0.54 W m−2 for the pre-industrial era to the mid-1970s and −0.59 W m−2 for the pre-industrial era to the mid-2000s. Our result suggests that comparing ERF changes between two observable periods rather than absolute magnitudes relative to a poorly constrained pre-industrial state might provide a better test for a model's ability to represent transient climate changes.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.title
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing-insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
ethz.journal.volume
19
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
10
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Atmos. chem. phys.
ethz.pages.start
6821
en_US
ethz.pages.end
6841
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.grant
Impact of Biogenic versus Anthropogenic emissions on Clouds and Climate: towards a Holistic UnderStanding
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03690 - Lohmann, Ulrike / Lohmann, Ulrike
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03690 - Lohmann, Ulrike / Lohmann, Ulrike
ethz.grant.agreementno
603445
ethz.grant.fundername
EC
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100000780
ethz.grant.program
FP7
ethz.date.deposited
2019-06-01T02:29:25Z
ethz.source
SCOPUS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2019-06-04T09:10:53Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2020-02-15T19:25:13Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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