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dc.contributor.author
Garfinkel, Chaim I.
dc.contributor.author
Schwartz, Chen
dc.contributor.author
Butler, Amy H.
dc.contributor.author
Domeisen, Daniela
dc.contributor.author
Son, Seok-Woo
dc.contributor.author
White, Ian P.
dc.date.accessioned
2019-08-20T15:34:19Z
dc.date.available
2019-08-20T14:00:32Z
dc.date.available
2019-08-20T15:34:19Z
dc.date.issued
2019-07-27
dc.identifier.issn
0148-0227
dc.identifier.issn
2169-897X
dc.identifier.other
10.1029/2018jd029961
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/359523
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000359523
dc.description.abstract
While a connection between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex appears robust in observational studies focusing on the period before 1979 and in many modeling studies, this connection is not evident over the past few decades. In this study, the factors that have led to the disappearance of the ENSO‐vortex relationship are assessed by comparing this relationship in observational data and in operational subseasonal forecasting models over the past few decades. For reforecasts initialized in December, the models simulate a significantly weaker vortex during El Niño than La Niña (LN) as occurred before 1979, but no such effect was observed to have occurred. The apparent cause of this is the eastern European and western Siberian height anomalies present during ENSO. The observed LN events were associated with persistent ridging over eastern Europe as compared to El Niño. Although the Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal models are initialized with this ridge, the ridge quickly dissipates. As ridging over this region enhances wave flux entering the stratosphere, the net effect is no robust stratospheric response to ENSO in the observations despite a North Pacific teleconnection that would, in isolation, lead to less wave flux for LN. The anomalies in the eastern European sector in response to ENSO likely reflect unforced internal atmospheric variability.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
American Geophysical Union
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject
El Niño
en_US
dc.subject
Arctic vortex
en_US
dc.subject
subseasonal forecasting
en_US
dc.title
Weakening of the Teleconnection From El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the Arctic Stratosphere Over the Past Few Decades: What Can Be Learned From Subseasonal Forecast Models?
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2019-06-07
ethz.journal.title
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
ethz.journal.volume
124
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
14
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
J. geophys. res., Atmos.
ethz.pages.start
7683
en_US
ethz.pages.end
7696
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.grant
Improving the Prediction of Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Weather and Climate – From Theory to Application
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.publication.place
Washington, DC
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::09612 - Domeisen, Daniela / Domeisen, Daniela
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::09612 - Domeisen, Daniela / Domeisen, Daniela
en_US
ethz.grant.agreementno
170523
ethz.grant.fundername
SNF
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100001711
ethz.grant.program
SNF-Förderungsprofessuren Stufe 2
ethz.date.deposited
2019-08-20T14:00:40Z
ethz.source
FORM
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2019-08-20T15:34:31Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2022-03-28T23:30:54Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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