Fleet-based LCA applied to the building sector - Environmental and economic analysis of retrofit strategies

Abstract

CO2 emissions need to be reduced by 40% in 2030 in Portugal as an intermediate target of the Paris Agreement. This challenging goal is expected to be achieved through incentive-based regulations and voluntary actions. This study improves the understanding of renovation strategies to reduce emissions caused by the built environment. A fleet-based Life Cycle Assessment (fb-LCA) is adapted and applied to the building sector. Fb-LCA integrates LCA and a fleet model to describe stocks and flows associated with a class of products over time. The method is tested for a neighbourhood in Lisbon, Portugal. The analysis compares 3 scenarios of dynamic renovation rates for the next 30 years: business as usual, a public economic incentive to renovate, and mandatory renovation. Different technology scenarios including bio-based ones, are compared. Among the latter, alternative material solutions, e.g. insulation cork boards, are emerging, providing carbon sequestration. Results highlight the environmental benefits of bio-based materials considering the temporal profile of renovation activity. Furthermore, the cost and sensitivity analysis help stakeholders to justify retrofit actions from an environmental and economic point of view. The adaptation of a fb-LCA approach proves to be an easy-to-use method to assess technology options and policy scenarios at a neighbourhood scale.