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dc.contributor.author
Jones, Chris D.
dc.contributor.author
Frölicher, Thomas L.
dc.contributor.author
Koven, Charles
dc.contributor.author
MacDougall, Andrew H.
dc.contributor.author
Matthews, H. Damon
dc.contributor.author
Zickfeld, Kirsten
dc.contributor.author
Rogelj, Joeri
dc.contributor.author
Tokarska, Katarzyna B.
dc.contributor.author
Gillett, Nathan P.
dc.contributor.author
Ilyina, Tatiana
dc.contributor.author
Meinshausen, Malte
dc.contributor.author
Mengis, Nadine
dc.contributor.author
Séférian, Roland
dc.contributor.author
Eby, Michael
dc.contributor.author
Burger, Friedrich A.
dc.date.accessioned
2019-10-28T07:50:42Z
dc.date.available
2019-10-25T04:50:09Z
dc.date.available
2019-10-28T07:50:42Z
dc.date.issued
2019-10-15
dc.identifier.issn
1991-9603
dc.identifier.issn
1991-959X
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/372741
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000372741
dc.description.abstract
The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. This “zero emissions commitment” (ZEC) is also an important quantity when estimating the remaining carbon budget – a limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 ∘C included the assumption that the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous research has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. To close this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount of unrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease and investigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response. Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one that will not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it is crucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to account for any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2 emissions. We request only one top-priority simulation from comprehensive general circulation Earth system models (ESMs) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) – a branch from the 1 % CO2 run with CO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000 PgC of total CO2 emissions in the simulation – with the possibility for additional simulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under joint sponsorship by C4MIP and CDRMIP, with associated experiment names to enable data submissions to the Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be published and made freely available.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.title
The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
Geoscientific Model Development
ethz.journal.volume
12
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
10
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Geosci. model dev.
ethz.pages.start
4375
en_US
ethz.pages.end
4385
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.grant
Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach
en_US
ethz.grant
LC-CLA-08-2018 | RIA | Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections
en_US
ethz.grant
Climate-Carbon Interactions in the Coming Century
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.grant.agreementno
641816
ethz.grant.agreementno
820829
ethz.grant.agreementno
821003
ethz.grant.fundername
SBFI
ethz.grant.fundername
EC
ethz.grant.fundername
EC
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100007352
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100000780
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100000780
ethz.grant.program
H2020
ethz.grant.program
H2020
ethz.grant.program
H2020
ethz.date.deposited
2019-10-25T04:50:13Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2019-10-28T07:50:55Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2023-02-06T17:46:42Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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