Be prepared: Exploring future climate-related risk for residential and commercial real estate portfolios

Abstract

This article explores how real estate investors and lenders can assess and manage the physical risks of climate change through wellestablished risk models and climate scenarios. The authors propose a methodology that real estate investors and lenders can use to improve their understanding and management of these risks. The methodology is applied to a sample of 12 real estate portfolios with a total market value in excess of £2 trillion, spread across Europe, North and South America, and Asia, investigating the impacts of climate change on losses from floods and winter storms (UK) as well as tropical cyclones (North America and the Pacific Rim). The estimated changes in risk, especially in the climate scenario most aligned with the current warming trajectory, raises important questions for investors, lenders, insurers, and policymakers as to how these new levels of risk can be managed in the most cost-effective manner.