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dc.contributor.author
Schaefli, Bettina
dc.contributor.author
Harman, Ciaran J.
dc.contributor.author
Sivapalan, Murugesu
dc.contributor.author
Schymanski, Stanislaus J.
dc.date.accessioned
2019-06-06T12:09:09Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-09T18:14:39Z
dc.date.available
2019-06-06T12:06:39Z
dc.date.available
2019-06-06T12:09:09Z
dc.date.issued
2011
dc.identifier.issn
1027-5606
dc.identifier.issn
1607-7938
dc.identifier.other
10.5194/hess-15-635-2011
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/43612
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000043612
dc.description.abstract
Most hydrological models are valid at most only in a few places and cannot be reasonably transferred to other places or to far distant time periods. Transfer in space is difficult because the models are conditioned on past observations at particular places to define parameter values and unobservable processes that are needed to fully characterize the structure and functioning of the landscape. Transfer in time has to deal with the likely temporal changes to both parameters and processes under future changed conditions. This remains an important obstacle to addressing some of the most urgent prediction questions in hydrology, such as prediction in ungauged basins and prediction under global change. In this paper, we propose a new approach to catchment hydrological modeling, based on universal principles that do not change in time and that remain valid across many places. The key to this framework, which we call behavioral modeling, is to assume that there are universal and time-invariant organizing principles that can be used to identify the most appropriate model structure (including parameter values) and responses for a given ecosystem at a given moment in time. These organizing principles may be derived from fundamental physical or biological laws, or from empirical laws that have been demonstrated to be time-invariant and to hold at many places and scales. Much fundamental research remains to be undertaken to help discover these organizing principles on the basis of exploration of observed patterns of landscape structure and hydrological behavior and their interpretation as legacy effects of past co-evolution of climate, soils, topography, vegetation and humans. Our hope is that the new behavioral modeling framework will be a step forward towards a new vision for hydrology where models are capable of more confidently predicting the behavior of catchments beyond what has been observed or experienced before.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Copernicus
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.title
HESS Opinions: Hydrologic predictions in a changing environment: behavioral modeling
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported
dc.date.published
2011-02-24
ethz.journal.title
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ethz.journal.volume
15
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
2
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Hydrol. earth syst. sci.
ethz.pages.start
635
en_US
ethz.pages.end
646
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.publication.place
Göttingen
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03812 - Or, Dani (emeritus) / Or, Dani (emeritus)
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02721 - Inst. f. Biogeochemie u. Schadstoffdyn. / Inst. Biogeochem. and Pollutant Dynamics::03812 - Or, Dani (emeritus) / Or, Dani (emeritus)
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-09T18:14:51Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59364ecd6086e90438
ethz.ecitpid
pub:72214
ethz.eth
no
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-18T14:57:58Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2020-02-15T19:27:06Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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