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dc.contributor.author
Sippel, Sebastian
dc.contributor.author
Fischer, Erich M.
dc.contributor.author
Scherrer, Simon C.
dc.contributor.author
Meinshausen, Nicolai
dc.contributor.author
Knutti, Reto
dc.date.accessioned
2020-09-28T12:43:21Z
dc.date.available
2020-09-26T19:40:00Z
dc.date.available
2020-09-28T12:43:21Z
dc.date.issued
2020-09
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9326
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9318
dc.identifier.other
10.1088/1748-9326/ab86f2
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/442869
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000442869
dc.description.abstract
Cold season temperatures in Europe have increased rapidly by about 1.2°C in the late 1980s, followed by relatively modest and regionally flat temperature trends thereafter. The abrupt change affected the entire European continent and coincided regionally with abrupt hydroclimatic changes such as a widespread reduction in snow days in Switzerland. However, the drivers and causes of the event are not well understood. Using a dynamical adjustment method based on statistical learning, we find that the continental-scale late 1980s abrupt winter warming and regional decreases in snow days can be attributed to cold conditions in the mid-1980s followed by a few exceptionally warm seasons. Both are caused by random atmospheric circulation variability superimposed upon a long-term and relatively homogenous warming trend, and do not require an external cause or change of the underlying dynamics of the system. This explanation is consistent with simulations from a 21-member regional climate model ensemble, in which four members display comparable abrupt temperature increases regionally driven by circulation and a long-term externally forced response. Overall, our analysis provides an observation-based interpretation of abrupt temperature change at the continental scale, associated hydroclimatic changes regionally, and its drivers. Furthermore, our method might contribute to improved mechanistic understanding of different observed climate phenomena in many regions of the world that experience high variability.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Institute of Physics
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
climate variability
en_US
dc.subject
abrupt climate change
en_US
dc.subject
dynamical adjustment
en_US
dc.subject
climate change
en_US
dc.title
Late 1980s abrupt cold season temperature change in Europe consistent with circulation variability and long-term warming
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2020-08-25
ethz.journal.title
Environmental Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
15
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
9
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Environ. Res. Lett.
ethz.pages.start
094056
en_US
ethz.size
12 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Bristol
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02000 - Dep. Mathematik / Dep. of Mathematics::02537 - Seminar für Statistik (SfS) / Seminar for Statistics (SfS)::03990 - Meinshausen, Nicolai / Meinshausen, Nicolai
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02000 - Dep. Mathematik / Dep. of Mathematics::02537 - Seminar für Statistik (SfS) / Seminar for Statistics (SfS)::03990 - Meinshausen, Nicolai / Meinshausen, Nicolai
ethz.date.deposited
2020-09-26T19:40:05Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2020-09-28T12:43:32Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2021-02-15T17:38:27Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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