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dc.contributor.author
Katul, Gabriel G.
dc.contributor.author
Mrad, Assaad
dc.contributor.author
Bonetti, Sara
dc.contributor.author
Manoli, Gabriele
dc.contributor.author
Parolari, Anthony J.
dc.date.accessioned
2020-10-09T09:52:36Z
dc.date.available
2020-10-09T03:04:56Z
dc.date.available
2020-10-09T09:52:36Z
dc.date.issued
2020-09
dc.identifier.issn
1932-6203
dc.identifier.other
10.1371/journal.pone.0239800
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/445183
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000445183
dc.description.abstract
The SIR (‘susceptible-infectious-recovered’) formulation is used to uncover the generic spread mechanisms observed by COVID-19 dynamics globally, especially in the early phases of infectious spread. During this early period, potential controls were not effectively put in place or enforced in many countries. Hence, the early phases of COVID-19 spread in countries where controls were weak offer a unique perspective on the ensemble-behavior of COVID-19 basic reproduction number Ro inferred from SIR formulation. The work here shows that there is global convergence (i.e., across many nations) to an uncontrolled Ro = 4.5 that describes the early time spread of COVID-19. This value is in agreement with independent estimates from other sources reviewed here and adds to the growing consensus that the early estimate of Ro = 2.2 adopted by the World Health Organization is low. A reconciliation between power-law and exponential growth predictions is also featured within the confines of the SIR formulation. The effects of testing ramp-up and the role of ‘super-spreaders’ on the inference of Ro are analyzed using idealized scenarios. Implications for evaluating potential control strategies from this uncontrolled Ro are briefly discussed in the context of the maximum possible infected fraction of the population (needed to assess health care capacity) and mortality (especially in the USA given diverging projections). Model results indicate that if intervention measures still result in Ro > 2.7 within 44 days after first infection, intervention is unlikely to be effective in general for COVID-19.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
PLOS
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.title
Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2020-09-24
ethz.journal.title
PLoS ONE
ethz.journal.volume
15
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
9
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
PLoS ONE
ethz.pages.start
e0239800
en_US
ethz.size
22 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
San Francisco, CA
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2020-10-09T03:05:02Z
ethz.source
SCOPUS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2020-10-09T09:52:49Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2024-02-02T12:17:26Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
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