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dc.contributor.author
Koh, Ilyun
dc.contributor.author
Garrett, Rachael
dc.contributor.author
Janetos, Anthony
dc.contributor.author
Mueller, Nathaniel D.
dc.date.accessioned
2020-10-15T08:51:58Z
dc.date.available
2020-10-15T02:38:48Z
dc.date.available
2020-10-15T08:51:58Z
dc.date.issued
2020-10
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9326
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9318
dc.identifier.other
10.1088/1748-9326/aba471
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/446006
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000446006
dc.description.abstract
Brazil is the world's leading coffee exporter, contributing billions of dollars to the global food economy. Yet, a majority of Brazilian coffee farms are operated by 'smallholders', producers with relatively small properties and primarily reliant on family labor. While previous work indicates that climate change will decrease the area suitable for coffee production in Brazil, no study has assessed the impacts of climate change on coffee yields or the relative exposure and vulnerability of coffee producing regions to changes in climate hazards (climate-associated losses in yield). To address these knowledge gaps, we assess the sensitivity of coffee yields to temperature and precipitation variation from 1974 to 2017 to map coffee climate hazards. Next, we identify which coffee producing regions in Brazil have the highest exposure to climate hazards due to high dependence of coffee production as a proportion of agricultural area. Finally, we generate a Vulnerability Index to identify which regions are theoretically least able to adapt to climate hazards. Our study finds that since 1974, temperatures in Brazilian coffee growing municipalities have been increasing by ~0.25 °C per decade and annual precipitation has been decreasing during the blooming and ripening periods. This historical climate change has already resulted in reductions in coffee yield by more than 20% in the Southeast of Brazil. Minas Gerais, the largest coffee producing state in Brazil, has among the highest climate hazard and overall climate risk, exacerbated by ongoing coffee expansion. Additionally, many municipalities with the lowest adaptive capacity, including the country's mountainous regions, also have high climate exposure and hazards. Negative climate hazard and exposure impacts for coffee producing regions could be potentially offset by targeting climate adaptation support to these high-risk regions, including research, extension, and credit subsidies for improved coffee varieties, irrigation, and agroforestry and diversifying agricultural production.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Institute of Physics
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
climate change
en_US
dc.subject
agriculture
en_US
dc.subject
smallholder
en_US
dc.subject
vulnerability
en_US
dc.subject
Cerrado
en_US
dc.subject
Latin America
en_US
dc.subject
coffee
en_US
dc.title
Climate risks to Brazilian coffee production
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2020-09-21
ethz.journal.title
Environmental Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
15
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
10
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Environ. Res. Lett.
ethz.pages.start
104015
en_US
ethz.size
12 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Bristol
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02045 - Dep. Geistes-, Sozial- u. Staatswiss. / Dep. of Humanities, Social and Pol.Sc.::09659 - Garrett, Rachael / Garrett, Rachael
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02045 - Dep. Geistes-, Sozial- u. Staatswiss. / Dep. of Humanities, Social and Pol.Sc.::09659 - Garrett, Rachael / Garrett, Rachael
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02045 - Dep. Geistes-, Sozial- u. Staatswiss. / Dep. of Humanities, Social and Pol.Sc.::09659 - Garrett, Rachael / Garrett, Rachael
ethz.date.deposited
2020-10-15T02:38:58Z
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2020-10-15T08:52:12Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2021-02-15T18:23:07Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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