The Swiss energy transition: Policies to address the Energy Trilemma

Abstract

We present a power market model that couples short-term electricity markets of five interconnected countries: Switzerland, Austria, Germany, Italy and France. The model simulates the Swiss energy transition. It examines the impact of international (carbon taxation, fuel prices and the expansion of cross-border transmission capacities) and national policies both on short-term operation and long-term evolution of Swiss electricity supply, CO2 emissions, consumer costs and security of supply. The study shows the importance of understanding the interplay of policies and market players to achieve the decarbonization goals effectively. We simulate three national scenarios (Reference, RES+, NUC+), which differ in RES support and nuclear phase-out plans. We compare them along the dimensions of the Energy Trilemma prism: sustainability (CO2 emissions), affordability (costs to the consumer) and security of supply. The Reference scenario results in the highest CO2 emissions. Boosting solar via increased RES support in the RES + scenario reduces CO2 emissions, but increases costs to consumers. NUC + scenario provides the highest CO2 savings potential and the lowest costs to consumers. However, the nuclear extension would need to obtain regulatory or social approval. All scenarios prove a need for a Strategic Reserve to ensure compliance with the legal security of supply criteria.