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dc.contributor.author
Kaszás, Bálint
dc.contributor.author
Haller, George
dc.date.accessioned
2020-12-07T09:11:50Z
dc.date.available
2020-12-07T03:45:06Z
dc.date.available
2020-12-07T09:11:50Z
dc.date.issued
2020-11
dc.identifier.issn
1054-1500
dc.identifier.issn
1089-7682
dc.identifier.other
10.1063/5.0021665
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/454847
dc.description.abstract
We derive universal upper estimates for model prediction error under moderate but otherwise unknown model uncertainty. Our estimates give upper bounds on the leading-order trajectory uncertainty arising along model trajectories, solely as functions of the invariants of the known Cauchy–Green strain tensor of the model. Our bounds turn out to be optimal, which means that they cannot be improved for general systems. The quantity relating the leading-order trajectory-uncertainty to the model uncertainty is the model sensitivity (MS), which we find to be a useful tool for a quick global assessment of the impact of modeling uncertainties in various domains of the phase space. By examining the expectation that finite-time Lyapunov exponents capture sensitivity to modeling errors, we show that this does not generally follow. However, we find that certain important features of the finite-time Lyapunov exponent persist in the MS field.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
AIP Publishing
en_US
dc.title
Universal upper estimate for prediction errors under moderate model uncertainty
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.date.published
2020-11-24
ethz.journal.title
Chaos
ethz.journal.volume
30
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
11
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Chaos
ethz.pages.start
113144
en_US
ethz.size
16 p.
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Melville, NY
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02130 - Dep. Maschinenbau und Verfahrenstechnik / Dep. of Mechanical and Process Eng.::02618 - Institut für Mechanische Systeme / Institute of Mechanical Systems::03973 - Haller, George / Haller, George
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02130 - Dep. Maschinenbau und Verfahrenstechnik / Dep. of Mechanical and Process Eng.::02618 - Institut für Mechanische Systeme / Institute of Mechanical Systems::03973 - Haller, George / Haller, George
ethz.date.deposited
2020-12-07T03:45:11Z
ethz.source
SCOPUS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Metadata only
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2020-12-07T09:12:07Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2021-02-15T21:28:28Z
ethz.rosetta.exportRequired
true
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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