Age-stratified discrete compartment model of the COVID-19 epidemic with application to Switzerland

Open access
Date
2020Type
- Journal Article
Citations
Cited 22 times in
Web of Science
Cited 23 times in
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ETH Bibliography
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Abstract
Compartmental models enable the analysis and prediction of an epidemic including the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased individuals in a population. They allow for computational case studies on non-pharmaceutical interventions thereby providing an important basis for policy makers. While research is ongoing on the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, it is important to come up with epidemic models that can describe the main stages of the progression of the associated COVID-19 respiratory disease. We propose an age-stratified discrete compartment model as an alternative to differential equation based S-I-R type of models. The model captures the highly age-dependent progression of COVID-19 and is able to describe the day-by-day advancement of an infected individual in a modern health care system. The fully-identified model for Switzerland not only predicts the overall histories of the number of infected, hospitalized and deceased, but also the corresponding age-distributions. The model-based analysis of the outbreak reveals an average infection fatality ratio of 0.4% with a pronounced maximum of 9.5% for those aged ≥ 80 years. The predictions for different scenarios of relaxing the soft lockdown indicate a low risk of overloading the hospitals through a second wave of infections. However, there is a hidden risk of a significant increase in the total fatalities (by up to 200%) in case schools reopen with insufficient containment measures in place. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000455613Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
Scientific ReportsVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
Nature Publishing GroupOrganisational unit
09473 - Mohr, Dirk / Mohr, Dirk
08845 - Balabdaoui, Fadoua (Tit.-Prof.) / Balabdaoui, Fadoua (Tit.-Prof.)
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Citations
Cited 22 times in
Web of Science
Cited 23 times in
Scopus
ETH Bibliography
yes
Altmetrics