Empirical relationships to estimate the probability of runout exceedance for various landslide types
- Conference Paper
Estimating the potential runout distance of a landslide and it associated impacted area is an important component of landslide hazard and risk analysis. This can be done using empirical; or physics-based runout analysis methods. The current study uses the empirical method by compiling previously published international examples of landslide runout and unpublished New Zealand landslides triggered by recent earthquakes and rainstorm events. The results are presented in a series of ΔH/L versus volume plots for different landslide types, substrate (glacier versus unglaciated), and triggers (earthquake versus rainfall). The plots contain superimposed probability of runout exceedance lines. The results from this study provide landslide researchers and practitioners simple tools to conduct a forward-looking empirical-probabilistic runout analysis for debris avalanches, debris flows, and rock avalanches. The methodology presented is appropriate for a regional-level assessment or scoping-level site-specific assessment to identify areas warranting more detailed work. Applications and limitations of empirical-probabilistic runout methods are also discussed. Show more
Book titleUnderstanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk. Volume 2: From Mapping to Hazard and Risk Zonation
Journal / seriesICL Contribution to Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction
Pages / Article No.
SubjectRunout; Travel distance; Probability of runout exceedance
Organisational unit03465 - Löw, Simon (emeritus) / Löw, Simon (emeritus)
NotesConference postponed due to Corona virus (COVID-19). Conference rescheduled from November 3-6, 2020 to November 2-6, 2021.
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