Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author
Gädeke, Anne
dc.contributor.author
Langer, Moritz
dc.contributor.author
Boike, Julia
dc.contributor.author
Burke, Eleanor J.
dc.contributor.author
Chang, Jinfeng
dc.contributor.author
Head, Melissa
dc.contributor.author
Reyer, Christopher P.O.
dc.contributor.author
Schaphoff, Sibyll
dc.contributor.author
Thiery, Wim
dc.contributor.author
Thonicke, Kirsten
dc.date.accessioned
2021-02-25T10:20:56Z
dc.date.available
2021-02-24T09:51:41Z
dc.date.available
2021-02-25T10:20:56Z
dc.date.issued
2021-02
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9326
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9318
dc.identifier.other
10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/471295
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000471295
dc.description.abstract
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Institute of Physics
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
permafrost
en_US
dc.subject
climate change
en_US
dc.subject
land surface models
en_US
dc.subject
Arctic transport
en_US
dc.subject
winter roads
en_US
dc.subject
ice roads
en_US
dc.subject
Arctic accessibility
en_US
dc.title
Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2021-02-10
ethz.journal.title
Environmental Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
16
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
2
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Environ. Res. Lett.
ethz.pages.start
024049
en_US
ethz.size
14 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Bristol
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.date.deposited
2021-02-24T09:51:53Z
ethz.source
SCOPUS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2021-02-25T10:21:08Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2022-03-29T05:27:26Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=Climate%20change%20reduces%20winter%20overland%20travel%20across%20the%20Pan-Arctic%20even%20under%20low-end%20global%20warming%20scenarios&rft.jtitle=Environmental%20Research%20Letters&rft.date=2021-02&rft.volume=16&rft.issue=2&rft.spage=024049&rft.issn=1748-9326&1748-9318&rft.au=G%C3%A4deke,%20Anne&Langer,%20Moritz&Boike,%20Julia&Burke,%20Eleanor%20J.&Chang,%20Jinfeng&rft.genre=article&rft_id=info:doi/10.1088/1748-9326/abdcf2&
 Search print copy at ETH Library

Files in this item

Thumbnail

Publication type

Show simple item record