Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author
Wohland, Jan
dc.contributor.author
Brayshaw, David
dc.contributor.author
Bloomfield, Hannah
dc.contributor.author
Wild, Martin
dc.date.accessioned
2021-03-11T07:26:20Z
dc.date.available
2021-03-11T07:26:20Z
dc.date.issued
2020-10
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9326
dc.identifier.issn
1748-9318
dc.identifier.other
10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e6
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/473957
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000445823
dc.description.abstract
Long-term historic climate datasets are valuable tools to investigate climate variability, validate climate models and contextualize anticipated climate change. Surface solar radiation is one particularly relevant variable, with implications on policy decisions (e.g. performance of solar panels) and fundamental questions in climate science (e.g. regarding the energy budget). While all current twentieth century reanalyses provide surface solar radiation, we demonstrate that most of them fail to capture multidecadal surface radiation variability in Europe. To this end, we systematically compare the reanalyses 20CRv2c, 20CRv3, ERA20C and CERA20C and the free model run ERA20CM. We show that only CERA20C captures dimming (1949-1979) and brightening (1979-2009) in line with station observations, satellite-era reanalyses and established theory. The lack of multidecadal surface radiation variability in 20CRv2c/v3 is plausible given the use of constant aerosols. In contrast, ERA20CM, ERA20C and CERA20C are forced with time-varying aerosols. Despite this common forcing, ERA20CM and ERA20C surprisingly show no trends in clear-sky fluxes over the dimming and brightening periods while CERA20C shows significant trends. We discuss different potential explanations for this discrepancy (model versions, ocean coupling and ensemble size) and conclude that none of them provides a convincing explanation. Our results therefore imply that only CERA20C is suitable for assessments of surface solar radiation variability on multi-decadal timescales. This particularly applies to impact studies, for example, on long-term potentials of solar power generation.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
IOP Publishing
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
Solar
en_US
dc.subject
radiation
en_US
dc.subject
dimming
en_US
dc.subject
brightening
en_US
dc.subject
20th century reanalysis
en_US
dc.subject
CERA20C
en_US
dc.subject
photovoltaics
en_US
dc.title
European multidecadal solar variability badly captured in all centennial reanalyses except CERA20C
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
Environmental Research Letters
ethz.journal.volume
15
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
10
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Environ. Res. Lett.
ethz.pages.start
104021
en_US
ethz.size
25 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
Bristol
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02723 - Institut für Umweltentscheidungen / Institute for Environmental Decisions::09451 - Patt, Anthony G. / Patt, Anthony G.
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03360 - Schär, Christoph / Schär, Christoph
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02723 - Institut für Umweltentscheidungen / Institute for Environmental Decisions::09451 - Patt, Anthony G. / Patt, Anthony G.
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03360 - Schär, Christoph / Schär, Christoph
ethz.date.deposited
2020-10-14T04:06:19Z
ethz.source
FORM
ethz.source
WOS
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2021-03-11T07:26:35Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2022-03-29T05:42:52Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
dc.identifier.olduri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/461616
dc.identifier.olduri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/445823
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=European%20multidecadal%20solar%20variability%20badly%20captured%20in%20all%20centennial%20reanalyses%20except%20CERA20C&rft.jtitle=Environmental%20Research%20Letters&rft.date=2020-10&rft.volume=15&rft.issue=10&rft.spage=104021&rft.issn=1748-9326&1748-9318&rft.au=Wohland,%20Jan&Brayshaw,%20David&Bloomfield,%20Hannah&Wild,%20Martin&rft.genre=article&rft_id=info:doi/10.1088/1748-9326/aba7e6&
 Search print copy at ETH Library

Files in this item

Thumbnail

Publication type

Show simple item record