Abstract
The large number of individuals placed into quarantine because of possible severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) exposure has high societal and economic costs. There is ongoing debate about the appropriate duration of quarantine, particularly since the fraction of individuals who eventually test positive is perceived as being low. We use empirically determined distributions of incubation period, infectivity, and generation time to quantify how the duration of quarantine affects onward transmission from traced contacts of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases and from returning travellers. We also consider the roles of testing followed by release if negative (test-and-release), reinforced hygiene, adherence, and symptoms in calculating quarantine efficacy. We show that there are quarantine strategies based on a test-and-release protocol that, from an epidemiological viewpoint, perform almost as well as a 10-day quarantine, but with fewer person-days spent in quarantine. The findings apply to both travellers and contacts, but the specifics depend on the context. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000474303Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
eLifeVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
eLife Sciences PublicationsOrganisational unit
03584 - Bonhoeffer, Sebastian / Bonhoeffer, Sebastian
02803 - Collegium Helveticum / Collegium Helveticum
Funding
176401 - Infectious disease dynamics: spread along contact networks and experimental evolution of antibiotic resistance (SNF)
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