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Counterfactual assessment of protected area avoided deforestation in Cambodia between 2010-2018: Trends in effectiveness, spillover effects and the influence of establishment date.
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Rights / licenseIn Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted
Whilst protected areas (PAs) remain a cornerstone of global conservation efforts, persistent underfunding alongside the increasing severity of environmental degradation has furthered interest in quantifying the ecological benefits they generate. However, the counterfactual assessment of proxies of effectiveness, such as avoided deforestation, achieved relative to unprotected areas are confounded by the non-random siting of PAs within landscapes which creates differential pressure upon their resources. Quasi-experimental techniques such as statistical matching aim to mitigate for this by selecting suitable control areas for comparison by minimizing variance across a suite of environmental and socio-economic covariates. This study presents a national scale assessment of PA effectiveness for the country of Cambodia employing nearest-neighbour propensity score matching using 10 covariates, with repeated random sampling, to quantify avoided deforestation in 3 different outcome periods between 2010-2018. The results found that, despite historic criticism, Cambodia’s PAs generated significant positive avoided deforestation in all periods, with forested land in PAs being as much as 8% less likely to be deforested than similar unprotected forest. Although effect size was found to decline over time likely due to a combination of rising deforestation pressure from agri-business concessions, followed by a large-scale expansion of the PA estate and institutional rearrangements. Additionally, the effectiveness of PAs in Cambodia was found to vary with respect to the duration of time since establishment and a significant positive spillover effect of PAs was observed in 5km buffers zones adjacent to their boundaries. Show more
SubjectCounterfactual; Statistical matching; Protected area assessment; Conservation impact assessment
Organisational unit03823 - Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne / Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne
02655 - Netzwerk Stadt und Landschaft D-ARCH
NotesEnthält Software. 2021-03-18 alr
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