Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author
Matthews, H. Damon
dc.contributor.author
Tokarska, Katarzyna B.
dc.contributor.author
Rogelj, Joeri
dc.contributor.author
Smith, Christopher J.
dc.contributor.author
MacDougall, Andrew H.
dc.contributor.author
Haustein, Karsten
dc.contributor.author
Mengis, Nadine
dc.contributor.author
Sippel, Sebastian
dc.contributor.author
Forster, Piers M.
dc.contributor.author
Knutti, Reto
dc.date.accessioned
2021-04-07T07:39:21Z
dc.date.available
2021-04-06T08:04:48Z
dc.date.available
2021-04-07T07:39:21Z
dc.date.issued
2021-01
dc.identifier.issn
2662-4435
dc.identifier.other
10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/477488
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000477488
dc.description.abstract
The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Springer
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.title
An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
ethz.journal.title
Communications Earth & Environment
ethz.journal.volume
2
en_US
ethz.journal.issue
1
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Commun Earth Environ
ethz.pages.start
7
en_US
ethz.size
11 p.
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.grant
LC-CLA-08-2018 | RIA | Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.publication.place
London
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03777 - Knutti, Reto / Knutti, Reto
en_US
ethz.grant.agreementno
820829
ethz.grant.fundername
EC
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100000780
ethz.grant.program
H2020
ethz.date.deposited
2021-04-06T08:04:56Z
ethz.source
FORM
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2021-04-07T07:39:35Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2024-02-02T13:27:54Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.atitle=An%20integrated%20approach%20to%20quantifying%20uncertainties%20in%20the%20remaining%20carbon%20budget&rft.jtitle=Communications%20Earth%20&%20Environment&rft.date=2021-01&rft.volume=2&rft.issue=1&rft.spage=7&rft.issn=2662-4435&rft.au=Matthews,%20H.%20Damon&Tokarska,%20Katarzyna%20B.&Rogelj,%20Joeri&Smith,%20Christopher%20J.&MacDougall,%20Andrew%20H.&rft.genre=article&rft_id=info:doi/10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9&
 Search print copy at ETH Library

Files in this item

Thumbnail

Publication type

Show simple item record