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dc.contributor.author
Verbunt, Mark
dc.contributor.supervisor
Schär, Christoph Joseph
dc.contributor.supervisor
Gurtz, Joachim
dc.date.accessioned
2017-08-22T08:40:58Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-09T20:28:29Z
dc.date.available
2017-08-22T08:40:58Z
dc.date.issued
2005
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/47748
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-a-005068366
dc.description.abstract
Recent floods in Central Europe caused damages in the order of several billions of Euros and numerous casualties. To mitigate the destructive consequences of severe flooding, society requires reliable fore casts of these events with a sufficient lead time. Hence, this study uses a coupled atmospheric-hydrologic forecasting System and explores the feasibility of exploiting recent advances in numerical weather prediction (e.g. Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System) for probabilistic flood fore casting. Because runoff formation in mountainous regions is mainly dominated by snow and glacier melt, chapter 2 presents a detailed analysis of melt processes in alpine catchments.The spatially distributed WaSiM-ETH model is applied to three Swiss high-alpine river catchments with different portions of glacierized areas for the period 1981-2000 with a spatial resolution of 100x100 m2 and an hourly time-step. To improve the calculation of glacier runoff, a seasonal varying radiation factor has been implemented in the glacier melt equation. Results show a strong dependency of the melt processes on season, altitude and exposition. Annual snow melt amount shows a maximum at around 2900 m a.s.l. in all investigated catchments. Besides natural processes, anthropogenic water storages and releases by hydropower stations can also have a considerable impact on the discharges and water cycle. In chapter3, these mechanisms have therefore been incorporated into hydrologic modelling of the Swiss Alpine Rhine basin (4838 km2). The hydrologic model was not able to simulate the diurnal and weekly cycle in the release mechanisms. By reconstructing hourly storage and release volumes from reservoir level data, a clear increase in the model Performance was reached, especially during the release periods and smaller floods. Additionally, an analysis of possible consequences of land-use changes is performed,showing that, although urbanization may have an impact on local hydrologic processes, its effect appears negligible in larger catchments. After the analyses of small-scale hydrologic processes, the next goal was the setup of an off-line coupled atmospheric-hydrologic modelling system (chapter 4) for runoff fore casting in the Rhine basin down to the gauge Rheinfelden (34550 km2). Due to the complex topography, the highly variable meteorology and the presence of lakes, it was necessary to divide the basin into several sub catchments. The conceptual PREVAH model was applied with a spatial resolution of 500x500 m2. The calibration of the catchments was done with the help of a semi-automatic parameter calibration program. The model correctly reproduces the relevant by drologic processes and properly captures the extreme runoff peaks. To validate the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model (Lokal Modell, LM), 6 years of 19-42 h precipitation and 2m temperature forecasts are used as input in the hydrologic model. Consequences for runoff forecasts, arising out of errors in precipitation forecasts, are most pronounced for events with high precipitation intensities, while the coupled modelling System in most cases properly predicts smaller flood events. Because of the hydrologic model sensitivity to atmospheric forcing, it would be desirable to quantify forecast uncertainties. A high-resolution atmospheric ensemble forecasting system based on 51 runs of the LM, which runs in a horizontal resolution of 10 km, has therefore been used to make probabilistic runoff forecasts for the Rhine basin down to Rheinfelden (chapter 5). The 5-day forecasts of the LM are used to drive the PREVAH model for two flood events. The case studies investigated are the spring 1999 flood event in the Rhine basin and the November 2002 flood in the Alpine Rhine catchment. The Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) allows to quantify hydrologic forecast uncertainties. Although the deterministic simulations yield large forecast failures, the coupled atmospheric-hydrologic LEPS provides appropriate forecast guidance with proper uncertainty intervals. The use of the clustering technique did not reduce ensemble spread compared to the 51 predictions. Furthermore, it was shown that the inclusion of horizontal advection of precipitation may be crucial for flood forecasts in alpine catchments.
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
ETH
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://rightsstatements.org/page/InC-NC/1.0/
dc.subject
NIEDERSCHLAG-ABFLUSSVERHÄLTNIS (HYDROLOGIE)
en_US
dc.subject
HYDROLOGISCHE MODELLE + HYDROLOGISCHE MODELLRECHNUNG
en_US
dc.subject
RAINFALL-RUNOFF RELATION (HYDROLOGY)
en_US
dc.subject
FLOODS + FLOOD RUNOFF + MAXIMUM RUNOFF (HYDROLOGY)
en_US
dc.subject
DRAINAGE AREAS + CATCHMENT BASINS + RIVER BASINS (HYDROLOGY)
en_US
dc.subject
EINZUGSGEBIETE + FLUSSGEBIETE + NIEDERSCHLAGSGEBIETE + WASSERSCHEIDE (HYDROLOGIE)
en_US
dc.subject
ALPINE RHINE, REICHENAU TO LAKE OF CONSTANCE (CENTRAL EUROPEAN RIVERS)
en_US
dc.subject
HYDROLOGICAL MODELS + MATHEMATICAL MODELLING IN HYDROLOGY
en_US
dc.subject
HYDROLOGISCHE VORHERSAGE, PROGNOSE
en_US
dc.subject
ALPENRHEIN, REICHENAU BIS BODENSEE (MITTELEUROPÄISCHE FLÜSSE)
en_US
dc.subject
HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING
en_US
dc.subject
HOCHWASSER + HOCHWASSERABFLUSS + MAXIMALABFLUSS (HYDROLOGIE)
en_US
dc.title
From small-scale modelling of alpine catchments towards probabilistic flood forecasting in the Rhine basin
en_US
dc.type
Doctoral Thesis
dc.rights.license
In Copyright - Non-Commercial Use Permitted
ethz.size
108 p.
en_US
ethz.code.ddc
5 - Science::550 - Earth sciences
en_US
ethz.identifier.diss
16115
en_US
ethz.identifier.nebis
005068366
ethz.publication.place
Zürich
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03360 - Schär, Christoph / Schär, Christoph
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02045 - Dep. Geistes-, Sozial- u. Staatswiss. / Dep. of Humanities, Social and Pol.Sc.::03515 - Wenger, Andreas / Wenger, Andreas
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02045 - Dep. Geistes-, Sozial- u. Staatswiss. / Dep. of Humanities, Social and Pol.Sc.::03515 - Wenger, Andreas / Wenger, Andreas
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02717 - Institut für Atmosphäre und Klima / Inst. Atmospheric and Climate Science::03360 - Schär, Christoph / Schär, Christoph
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-09T20:29:25Z
ethz.source
ECOL
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59366a9182b1241045
ethz.identifier.importid
imp59364f1aafe0441311
ethz.ecolpid
eth:28212
ethz.ecitpid
pub:78569
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Closed access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-20T16:30:10Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2017-08-22T08:41:29Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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