Operationalizing resilience in the face of climate change. The case of tomato producers in Morocco and Ghana

Abstract

While food production is one the main drivers of environmental changes, such as soil and water depletion or rising greenhouse gas emissions, it is also increasingly threatened by those very changes: increasing changing climate related shocks. Among essential nutritious food, fresh fruits and vegetable, such as tomato, are produced to meet local demand, but also to be traded internationally. Tomatoes are high-value products that represent a significant source of income for its producers. However, the production of such water demanding crops, is subject to vulnerability in face of climate related shocks such as drought or heavy rainfalls, threatening subsequently their producers’ livelihood. Addressing impacts of climate related shocks on producers and ways to enhance their resilience becomes central to tackle food systems challenges. Yet, ways to address agricultural producer’s resilience are disputed and trade-offs between ecological and socio-economical functions are colliding. The overarching goal of this thesis is to contribute to ways to operationalize producer’s climate resilience, by having a special focus on tomato production in two countries: Morocco and Ghana. These two countries have been chosen as they exemplify the diverse problematic around tomato production on the African continent. In this thesis, we used a combination of systems dynamics modeling tools and a survey among 244 tomato producers of two major producing regions in Morocco: the Souss-Massa region, where production is under greenhouses and mainly for export and the Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, where the production is open-field and intended for the national market. We analyzed the interactions between agricultural, ecological and socio-economic dimensions of the tomato production systems, and simulated the long-term behavior of the two production systems. The results of the model simulations highlighted how overexploitation of groundwater tables affects crop production and farmers’ income. We extended the analysis with our model, to further observe the effects of various ranges of droughts on the two production systems. Our results showed that droughts are accelerating the process of groundwater depletion, increasingly impacting farmers’ income. Finally, we analysed two policies that are suggested as a set of adaptative measures for a systemic enhancement of resilience under these circumstances. We show that a more radical approach towards water resource conservation upholding the most vulnerable producers has to be adopted. In Ghana, we conducted a survey among 344 tomato small-scale farmers in Ashanti and Upper East Region and complemented it with a system map based on evidence from tomato value chain stakeholders. The results show that farmers are severely exposed not only to climate, but also market related shocks, which negatively affect both production activities and farmers’ revenues. Furthermore, we identified that only few response mechanisms are in place yet to face these shocks, and we suggest that the current system is suboptimal and therefore requires transformation. The results of the studies in both countries, showed that operationalizing resilience requires a systemic approach to address the interconnections, feedback mechanisms and long-term outcomes of shocks on tomato producers. Enhancing resilience demands an integrated approach based on engagement of value-chains stakeholders, to support appropriate structures encompassing both climate and trading aspects. We, therefore, conclude that leaning towards a sustainable and inclusive resilience requires a transformation of the existing systems in place.