Non-Parametric Infrastructure Deterioration Curves from Differenced Condition Measurements: Method and Examples (Pre-Print)

Abstract

A new method is presented to develop deterioration curves covering the service life of pavements, but the method also applies of other infrastructure assets. The new method compliments existing methods by permitting the data to express the shape of the deterioration curves without a prior selection of a functional form. The new method is therefore an ideal first step in a traditional estimation process. The new method constructs a curve by linking short linear segments whose slopes are estimated independently. Connecting the short segments end-to-end yields the curves. A number of practical challenges are addressed here to adapt this approach to pavement deterioration data. Solutions are provided and the resulting statistical properties are investigated. An example of the methodology is given using a large data set from Switzerland. The examples show that climate related variable are key to the lengths of service lives in this data set.