Evaluating the Impact of General Versus Vocational Education on Labor Market Outcomes in Egypt by Means of a Regression Discontinuity Design

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of general versus vocational upper secondary education on labor market outcomes of people aged 25-49 in Egypt. The regression discontinuity design (RDD) exploits variation in test scores that track students in general or vocational education. Pooling data from the Egyptian Labor Market Survey (ELMPS) for the years 2012 and 2018, we find evidence for a relative advantage of general education graduates in terms of employment quality but no impact on labor force participation or employment. In particular, general education graduates are more likely to have a formal job, work on a regular basis and work in large firms with at least 25 workers. Estimates for 2018 relative to 2012, suggest that these effects are particularly strong in 2018. This finding could reflect the increasing advantage of general education over time or the more relaxed labor market situation in 2018 relative to 2012, right after the Arab spring.