Delay propagation mechanism of high-speed railway

Abstract

Based on real-world train operation records of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway (HSR) line from train dispatching system in Guangzhou railway bureau, the authors plot the delay propagation examples based on real-world data involves interference and buffer time, investigate the distributions of running time in sections and dwelling time at stations. Then, this paper studies the interaction between train operation interferences and buffer time in high-speed rail (HSR) and simulates the delay propagation mechanism for an investigative analysis. It establishes a state-transition diagram and matrix for trains based on the distribution and propagation effects of train operation interferences. The authors also establish a train operation recovery diagram and matrix according to the buffer time distribution based on the delay recovery principle. Using a HSR operation simulation platform, the paper simulates the train delay propagation and recovery between Changsha South and Chibi North stations. The simulation covers trains with different operation frequencies and long-time delay bands. The theoretical study and simulation demonstrate the following: (a) The higher the train operation frequency, the greater is the possibility of operation interference and train delay. (b) The more the buffer time, the greater is the possibility of interference recovery and delay clearance. (c) The buffer time has a relatively greater impact on alleviating delays caused by low-intensity interference.